In this article , I will discuss how content creators may misinterpret data, sometimes unintentionally, which can lead to statements that potentially impact the basketball trading card market. One of the biggest standouts from my fiscal year report was the declining basketball sports trading card market. I’m going to list what you’ll most likely see happening by content creators and flippers in the hopes of potentially returning basketball to its peak through various market factors and strategies.
Hype area 1 : Strong single game regular season performances by popular players are going to be blown out of proportion the idea here is it can drive demand for their cards. Player accomplishments and media attention can greatly influence card values.
Hype area 2 : They’re going to put the emphasis on new ultra modern high-quality, limited-edition card releases, with the idea it can create excitement and drive interest in the market.
Hype area 3 : Unproven rookies, rookie cards often hold significant value, so the performance of new rookies can impact the market. Content creators will most likely push this year’s rookie class and players coming back from injury in the previous rookie class. I advise you do not bake 6 championships into a player’s trading card value during their first season.
Hype area 4 : Card Grading and its need. The emphasis will be on gem rates and being first to market. the condition of cards, and their professional grading can affect their value. High-quality grading services can boost confidence in card quality. Content creators will push manufactured rarity.
Hype area 5 : Putting the focus on seasonal trends and the “Bounce Bank”. This was done in the Pokemon TCG content space, and I wouldn’t be surprised if sports content creators starting mentioning the the term “k-shape recovery”. The intent here is positive sentiment and confidence in the market can lead to increased trading and investment.
Here I’ll explain the “k-shape recovery” and why it’s not applicable to basketball cards.
The term “K-shaped recovery” is an economic concept that describes the uneven recovery of different segments of an economy after a recession or economic downturn. It’s not a concept specific to the basketball card market, but rather a broader economic concept. The “K” in the term represents the visual shape of the recovery, where some sectors or groups of people recover quickly and prosper while others continue to decline or struggle.
Here’s a breakdown of the concept and why it may not be directly applicable to the basketball card market:
- K-Shaped Recovery: In a K-shaped recovery, one arm of the “K” represents the upward trajectory and prosperity of certain sectors or groups, while the other arm represents the decline or stagnation of other sectors or groups. This divergence occurs based on various factors, including disparities in wealth, industry performance, and government policies.
- Application to the Economy: The K-shaped recovery concept is typically applied to the broader economy, reflecting disparities in recovery between different industries, income groups, or demographic segments. For example, during a recession, some industries may rebound quickly (e.g., technology, e-commerce), while others might struggle for an extended period (e.g., hospitality, travel).
- Basketball Card Market: The basketball card market, on the other hand, is a specific niche within the collectibles and sports memorabilia market. While it can be influenced by economic conditions, it doesn’t represent a broad segment of the economy. The performance of basketball cards is influenced by factors like the popularity of players, the rarity of cards, and collector sentiment.
- Unique Dynamics: The basketball card market has unique dynamics that may not align with the broader economic trends described in a K-shaped recovery. For example, the value of basketball cards can be influenced by individual player performances, trading card companies’ marketing strategies, and collector trends. These factors may not conform to the traditional K-shaped recovery model.
In summary, the concept of a K-shaped recovery is typically used to describe the uneven economic recovery of various sectors or groups within the broader economy. While the economy can influence the overall sentiment and spending power of collectors, the dynamics of the basketball card market are more influenced by specific factors related to the sports memorabilia and collectibles industry, making the direct application of a K-shaped recovery model less relevant.
Hype area 6 : I foresee an over emphasis on events like all-star games, playoffs, or record-breaking achievements to spur interest in trading cards. You can even throw in the Olympics here as well, my guess is content creators will even try to call this upcoming team another dream or redeem team, while providing skewed stats on the dream team effects on card values.
Hype area 7 : Content creators will be expressing confidence in marketing efforts or promotion budget of card manufacturers. The intent is effective marketing and promotion by card manufacturers and trading platforms can generate enthusiasm for the hobby.
Hype area 8 : Lastly, Content creators will make a play on community if all else fails. Think of how online forums, social media and collector communities play a significant role in creating a buzz around trading cards.
Remember that collecting sports trading cards carries risks, and it’s essential to do thorough research and consider your collecting goals and risk tolerance. Markets can be unpredictable, and past performance is not always indicative of future results. Content creators sometimes unintentionally are manipulating the market. I advise any collector to use the above 8 areas of hype as a checklist when a Content creator is implying you go in a particular direction.
Ask yourself these questions…
- ) Is a single game performance a driver of future value?
- ) Does this card have longevity or is it they shiny new object from a new release?
- ) How many unproven rookies turn out to be generational talents? How many generational talents have a sustainable trading card value?
- ) Is the value in the card or in the grade or the grading company?
- ) Am I comfortable buying this card if it doesn’t gain the positive scenario value?
- ) Would I collect this card if the special event was over?
- ) What is the true intent of marketing and promotion?
- ) What is the common interest of this discord/forum/stream? What push notifications does it give me the most? What links are being shared?