Pancake Analytics LLC

What’s the best time of year to buy cards?

Pancake Analytics
An illustration of a stack of pancakes with various sports and card categories labeled around them, including Baseball, Football, Pokémon, Basketball, Magic, TCG, Hockey, and Soccer. Each category has an icon representing it, and some have upward trend arrows indicating growth.

👋 A Note from Tom, Founder of Pancake Analytics

Hey everyone, Tom here.

If you’re anything like me, collecting cards isn’t just a hobby… it’s a heartbeat. It’s that feeling of holding a piece of something bigger. Whether it’s a legendary player, a favorite character, or a moment frozen in foil.

But lately, I’ve been hearing the same question from collectors, investors, and flippers alike:


“Where’s the market going?”
“What cards are still worth chasing?”
“When should I buy?”

I built CardBoard Compass because I wanted to bring real data into the conversation, not to replace the fun, but to deepen it. I believe collecting is part instinct and part insight, and this platform is where those two meet.

This article is my way of kicking off a year-long journey with you, every week, I’ll dive into the biggest questions shaping our hobby, powered by the data I’ve crunched behind the scenes.

Let’s get smarter together, and let’s keep collecting with purpose.

Thanks for being here.
— Tom @ Pancake Analytics

What This Article Covers

“What card category should I buy into, and when is the best time to do it?”

Type of analysis: Monthly market index + historical price dips

Pancake Analytics has the answer, not based on hype, but on analytics. Using our CardBoard Compass web app, we reviewed forecast models, MACD trend indicators, and monthly price history for nine major card categories:

📦 Fortnite

🕷️ Marvel

⚡ Pokémon

🌌 Star Wars

🧙 Magic: The Gathering

⚾ Baseball

🏀 Basketball

🏈 Football

🥅 Hockey

⚽ Soccer

Here’s what the data tells us (category by category) and how to make your next move smarter.

🔮 12-Month Forecast: Long-Term Winners

These projections estimate the average % change in market value by March 2026:

CategoryForecasted % ChangeLong-Term Outlook
Football+10.80%🚀 Best Growth Potential
Hockey+9.15%❄️ Underrated Momentum
Baseball+8.19%📈 Classic Performer
Basketball+7.21%🏀 Rebound Watch
Magic+0.36%♟️ Stable
Soccer+4.12%🌍 Event-Driven Upside
Pokémon-14.56%⚠️ Market Reset
Star Wars-18.50%🔻 Value Decline
Marvel-49.06%🕸️ Steep Correction
Fortnite-45.17%🎮 Deep Buy Opportunity

💡 Takeaway: Sports cards (especially football, hockey, and baseball) are projected to lead the pack into 2026. Meanwhile, Marvel and Fortnite show steep declines, suggesting buy-low setups if you’re playing the long game.

📉 MACD Momentum: What’s Hot Right Now?

MACD tracks short-term momentum, ideal for flippers and fast-moving investors.

CategoryMACD TrendInterpretation
Fortnite🔼 High Up🚨 Strong short-term demand
Pokémon🔼 Med Up⚡ Solid flip opportunities
Marvel🔼 Low Up☄️ Slow bounce forming
Magic🔽 Med Down🧊 Cooling off
Baseball🔽 Med Down🧯 Softened activity
Football🔽 Med Down💤 Offseason lull
Soccer🔽 Med Down🌧️ Calm before the Euros?
Basketball🔽 High Down🏀 Post-season fade
Hockey🔽 High Down❄️ Frozen for now
Star Wars🔽 Low Down🪐 Very low momentum

💡 Takeaway: Fortnite is seeing a rare short-term spike, while most sports categories are experiencing cooldowns (often ideal buying windows). Star Wars and Hockey are ice-cold… and that might be the point.

🗓️ Best Month to Buy by Category

We analyzed average monthly card values to pinpoint the best time to buy low:

CategoryBest MonthLowest Avg Value
FortniteOctober$51.45
MarvelApril$37.01
PokémonJuly$40.67
Star WarsJanuary$37.02
MagicAugust$25.45
BaseballMay$21.42
BasketballJune$37.23
FootballApril$28.39
HockeyDecember$19.78
SoccerApril$25.30

💡 Takeaway: April and May are consistently strong entry points across multiple categories, from Football to Marvel to Soccer.

🧠 Final Collector’s Read

Based on our 3-part analysis (Forecast, MACD, Seasonality), here’s how to think about each category right now:

💰 Top Investment Picks

💡 Tactical Buy-Low Opportunities

🎯 Best for Short-Term Flip Potential

🌱 Stable Holds

🧩 Final Thoughts from Pancake Analytics

Collecting isn’t always about buying what’s hot. It’s about knowing when the fire’s about to start.

With CardBoard Compass, we’re helping collectors approach the hobby with data-driven confidence, whether you’re chasing growth, looking for entry points, or just trying to make sense of the shifting market.

If you’ve made it this far, thank you.

I know how personal this hobby can be. Every card we pick up has a story, a memory, or a spark behind it. That’s why I wanted to share this analysis with you, not to tell you what to buy, but to help you see the patterns behind the passion.

Whether you’re flipping for fun, building sets for your kids, or investing for the long haul, the more you understand the rhythm of the market, the more confident and connected you’ll feel in your collecting journey.

I’ll be doing this all year long at Pancake Analytics, digging into data and asking better questions about the hobby we love.

And if you’re curious about the details for each category, what we saw in the trends, when values dip, and where the momentum is, just keep scrolling.
You’ll find the full breakdowns below. Think of them as your collector’s appendix: organized, visual, and data-backed.

Until next time,
— Tom @ Pancake Analytics

🎯 When to Buy Fortnite Cards: The Analytics Behind Timing the Market

💬 Why This Matters

Fortnite cards don’t get the spotlight they deserve, but that’s exactly what makes them a prime opportunity. While other segments of the trading card market are saturated with analysis, Fortnite remains under the radar. At Pancake Analytics, we’re filling that gap with data-driven insights, and this week, we’re tackling a big question:

“When is the best time to buy Fortnite cards?”

Let’s break it down.

📉 Long-Term Outlook: A Forecasted Drop

Our 12-month forecast shows a projected -45.17% decrease in average market value by March 2026. This trend suggests that prices may continue to slide — a potential entry point for collectors who believe in the long-term cultural relevance of Fortnite.

📌 Takeaway: If you’re bullish on Fortnite’s long-term brand value, a 45% dip is a compelling buy signal.

📈 Short-Term Momentum: Trending Up

Despite the bearish long-term forecast, our MACD analysis shows a “High Up” trend in short-term momentum. That means interest is rising right now. This discrepancy can occur when collectors temporarily re-enter a market even as broader value projections decline.

📌 Takeaway: While long-term values may fall, the current momentum suggests Fortnite cards are heating up in the short term, possibly due to content releases or nostalgia surges.

🗓️ Seasonal Buying: October Is Your Moment

Using our Monthly Index, we identified October as the best month to buy Fortnite cards. With the lowest historical average price of $51.45, it’s the optimal time to scoop undervalued cards before holiday buyers re-enter the market.

📌 Takeaway: October provides the best balance of low competition and low prices, perfect for budget-conscious buyers or long-term holders.

🔎 Final Read Out: Fortnite Card Market

Based on our analysis from CardBoard Compass:

This is not financial advice. This is an analytics read. Collecting is part science, part art.

🦸‍♂️ When to Buy Marvel Cards: What the Data Says in 2025

💥 Marvel’s Market Is Cooling: But That’s Not the Full Story

Marvel trading cards have long been a staple of pop culture collectibles, with spikes tied to MCU releases, vintage nostalgia, and high-end PMGs. But where does the market stand now?

This week at Pancake Analytics, we’re diving deep into Marvel card analytics using data from our CardBoard Compass app. The question we’re answering:

“When should I buy Marvel cards for the best value?”

🔮 Long-Term Forecast: Nearly 50% Decline Ahead

Our 12-month forecast projects a –49.06% drop in average Marvel card value by March 2026. This significant decline reflects collector fatigue, lower crossover demand from MCU fans, and market corrections after speculative surges.

📌 Takeaway: The long-term picture is bearish. A nearly 50% drop opens the door for deep discounts if you’re collecting for the long run or eyeing grails at lower entry points.

📊 MACD Momentum: Slowly Recovering

While the long-term outlook is steeply negative, the MACD shows a “Low Up” trend; a modest recovery in short-term momentum. Buyer activity is starting to return, but it’s not at breakout levels yet.

📌 Takeaway: There’s renewed buyer interest forming under the surface, even if pricing hasn’t surged. This signals a potential accumulation phase, savvy collectors often strike here.

🗓️ When to Buy: April Is the Marvel Dip

Our monthly price index reveals that April is historically the cheapest month to buy Marvel cards, with an average market value of $37.01; the lowest across the calendar year.

📌 Takeaway: If you’re building a Marvel collection, April is your budget-friendly window. Sellers tend to offload inventory pre-convention season, softening prices across inserts and base sets alike.

✅ Final Read Out: Marvel Card Market

Here’s the data-backed summary from CardBoard Compass:

This is not financial advice. This is an analytics read. Collecting is part science, part art.

🧠 Why This Matters

While hype fades, analytics uncover opportunities. Marvel cards may be slipping in value, but they’re also entering the affordability zone for the first time in years. If you’ve been priced out of 90s inserts, PMGs, or sketch cards; the next 12 months could be your buy-in window.

⚡ When to Buy Pokémon Cards: A Data-Driven Guide for 2025

🧢 Why This Topic Still Matters

Pokémon has endured for nearly three decades — and yet, with every wave of releases, media tie-ins, and vintage flashbacks, collectors still ask:

“When is the best time to buy Pokémon cards?”

CardBoard Compass gives us the answer, using market data and forecasting to show where prices are headed, where demand is now, and when values tend to bottom out.

📉 Long-Term Outlook: Minor Correction Expected

Our 12-month forecast shows a –14.56% projected decrease in Pokémon card values by March 2026. Unlike more volatile markets (like Marvel), Pokémon’s trend is more modest; signaling a healthy correction rather than a collapse.

📌 Takeaway: A moderate drop of ~15% means collectors could see deals on modern and vintage cards alike, especially in mid-tier slabs and high-pop sets.

📈 MACD Trend: Medium Up – Momentum Is Building

Short-term momentum is on the rise. The most recent MACD trend is “Med Up,” showing increased short-term buying interest across auction platforms and marketplaces.

📌 Takeaway: Market sentiment is recovering, likely driven by new set hype, anniversary tie-ins, or broader collector confidence.

📉 Seasonal Opportunity: July is the Buying Window

Based on historical trends, July offers the lowest average Pokémon card prices, with an average market value of just $40.67. This month likely reflects post-summer drop-offs before holiday demand spikes.

📌 Takeaway: Smart collectors should build wantlists now and strike in July when competition is lower and pricing is soft.

✅ Final Read Out: Pokémon Card Market Summary

From our CardBoard Compass analysis:

This is not financial advice. This is an analytics read. Collecting is part science, part art.

🔍 What Sets This Apart

Pokémon is a mature market, which means smaller shifts can create big opportunities, especially for sealed product, low-pop vintage, and alternate art chases. At Pancake Analytics, we’re tracking it all, so you don’t have to guess.

🌌 When to Buy Star Wars Cards: A Galaxy of Opportunity?

✨ A Quiet Force in the Hobby

While Star Wars fandom spans generations, the card market remains surprisingly under-analyzed. Whether you’re hunting Topps Chrome refractors, vintage stickers, or autographs from your favorite Sith, one question cuts across collectors:

“When should I buy Star Wars cards to get the best deal?”

With CardBoard Compass, we looked at the data, and the force is… quietly shifting.

🔮 Long-Term Forecast: A Slow Decline

Our forecast projects an –18.50% decline in Star Wars card values by March 2026. This dip mirrors declining short-term demand and less media hype compared to peak Mandalorian/Andor seasons.

📌 Takeaway: Nearly a 20% projected dip gives buyers room to target key cards, especially during off-peak auction periods or before major film/TV tie-ins reignite demand.

🧊 MACD Momentum: Cooling Down

The MACD trend is “Low Down”, indicating bearish short-term momentum. This often happens when sellers outweigh buyers, a perfect storm for value-focused pickups.

📌 Takeaway: Lower short-term activity often signals a “buyer’s market.” The timing could be ideal if you’re after long-term grails or planning to hold for the next media wave.

📆 The Best Time to Buy? January

Star Wars card values are at their lowest in January, with an average market value of just $37.02. This trend reflects post-holiday lulls when many sellers are offloading and fewer buyers are active.

📌 Takeaway: Beat the rush, buy in January while the market is quiet, then ride any bump tied to May 4th hype or new show trailers.

✅ Final Read Out: Star Wars Card Market

This is not financial advice. This is an analytics read. Collecting is part science, part art.

💬 Final Thoughts

You won’t find Star Wars card data this clear anywhere else. And that’s why it matters. While the market cools, true collectors and long-game investors may find their best chance to own legacy cards before the next trilogy, reboot, or cultural wave drives renewed hype.

🧙‍♂️ When to Buy Magic: The Gathering Cards: A Market Holding the Line

🪄 MTG Market Stability: The Outlier

In a year of corrections across many trading card categories, Magic: The Gathering stands apart. The question on many collectors’ minds:

“Is it a good time to buy Magic cards, or should I wait?”

At Pancake Analytics, we use CardBoard Compass to answer exactly that — with objective market data, not speculation.

🔮 Long-Term Forecast: Flat, But Resilient

Our forecast shows a +0.36% projected increase in market value by March 2026. That’s not explosive growth, but it’s not a decline either. This makes Magic one of the few stable-card markets heading into 2026.

📌 Takeaway: In a time of hobby-wide price declines, a flatline forecast is a win. MTG might be the closest thing to a safe harbor.

📉 MACD Momentum: Medium Down

Despite the stable long-term outlook, the MACD shows a “Med Down” short-term trend. Buyers are currently subdued, with limited excitement around recent sets or reprint fatigue setting in.

📌 Takeaway: It’s a quiet period, but quiet markets are often the most predictable, and sometimes the most opportunistic.

📅 Best Month to Buy: August

Historically, August delivers the lowest MTG card prices, with an average market value of $25.45. This aligns with a lull between summer releases and fall set hype, creating lower bidding activity and more deal-making.

📌 Takeaway: Want a clean buy-in? Target August and be ready to pounce when others sit out.

✅ Final Read Out: MTG Market Summary

This is not financial advice. This is an analytics read. Collecting is part science, part art.

🎯 Final Word

Magic has never been about hype cycles; it’s about sustained gameplay, stable communities, and a long tail of collector demand. While flashy categories burn hot and fade, MTG might just be your best low-risk buy this year.

⚾ When to Buy Baseball Cards: A Look at What’s Ahead

🔍 America’s Hobby: Still a Smart Buy?

Baseball cards are the backbone of the hobby: a legacy asset class with peaks, valleys, and diehard fans. But as collectors pivot to modern hype or international cards, we wanted to know:

“Is now a good time to buy baseball cards?”

With CardBoard Compass, we dug into the market outlook and pricing rhythm to get a clear answer.

📈 Long-Term Forecast: Positive Growth Expected

Our forecast shows an 8.19% increase in average market value by March 2026, a healthy sign of continued interest. This growth rate is one of the highest across all major card categories right now.

📌 Takeaway: Baseball may not be the loudest segment, but it’s steady. Collectors looking for safer appreciation may find it here.

📉 MACD Momentum: Cooling Off

Short-term momentum has shifted to “Med Down.” This indicates a market taking a breath: after a strong run-up, interest is cooling, but not crashing.

📌 Takeaway: A cooling MACD trend may present windows of opportunity: especially before the postseason or call-up hype cycles.

🗓️ Best Time to Buy: May

Historically, May has the lowest average card value, with a dip to $21.42. This likely reflects post-opening day fatigue and before the All-Star bump.

📌 Takeaway: If you’re targeting key rookies or vintage pickups, May is a great time to negotiate, while sellers still have spring buzz, but buyer interest lulls.

✅ Final Read Out: Baseball Card Market

This is not financial advice. This is an analytics read. Collecting is part science, part art.

⚾ Final Pitch

Baseball remains a foundational market with modest upside and price stability. It may lack the drama of modern TCGs or autos, but it has proven staying power and a passionate collector base. And with the data on your side, May might be your perfect window.

🏀 When to Buy Basketball Cards: A Strategic 2025 Market Play

🔥 Hobby Heat or Market Cooldown?

Basketball cards have long been the flashiest corner of the modern sports card boom: but with a changing economy, shifting fan priorities, and new rookie classes, collectors want to know:

“Are basketball cards still a good buy, and when’s the best time to strike?”

We turned to our analytics engine to cut through the noise and find clarity in the numbers.

📈 Long-Term Forecast: Strong Potential Growth

Our 12-month outlook shows a projected +7.21% increase in average basketball card values by March 2026. This positions basketball as one of the most promising growth sectors in the market right now, trailing only baseball.

📌 Takeaway: Despite current fluctuations, the long-term picture looks bright. Rising rookies and playoff narratives may drive sustained upside.

📉 MACD Trend: High Down, A Sharp Cool-Off

Basketball’s current MACD momentum is “High Down”, suggesting that recent hype has faded and short-term buying has cooled. This trend is common right after a surge (like playoffs or draft hype).

📌 Takeaway: A declining short-term trend doesn’t negate long-term growth. In fact, it could present a tactical entry point before the next season’s momentum builds.

📅 Best Time to Buy: June

June ranks lowest for average basketball card values, with a dip to $37.23. This coincides with the end of the playoffs and off-season lull, when most eyes are on baseball or summer releases.

📌 Takeaway: June is your collector’s “buy low” window. Less competition and more listings make it ideal for upgrading your portfolio.

✅ Final Read Out: Basketball Card Market

This is not financial advice. This is an analytics read. Collecting is part science, part art.

📊 Final Bounce

Basketball remains a dynamic market. With Wemby watch, offseason moves, and a growing international fanbase, value could rebound quickly. Use June to build positions before preseason hype returns.

🏈 When to Buy Football Cards: Strong Forecasts, Quiet Opportunity

💬 Collectors’ Question: Is Football Still Undervalued?

Football cards don’t always get the year-round attention basketball or TCGs do, but that’s exactly why they can offer sneaky upside. With the seasonality of the NFL and breakout rookie cycles, the key is timing.

“When’s the best time to buy football cards for value and upside?”

With CardBoard Compass, we tracked short- and long-term trends to give collectors a competitive edge.

📈 Long-Term Forecast: Strongest Growth in the Market

Football cards are projected to rise +10.80% in value by March 2026, the highest growth forecast among all categories analyzed this month. This reflects renewed confidence around young QBs and low pop-count parallels gaining steam.

📌 Takeaway: The long-term outlook is bullish. This is the strongest growth play in the entire sports/TCG landscape right now.

📉 MACD Trend: Cooling, but Holding Ground

Short-term movement is “Med Down”, meaning buyer energy has dipped, likely post-playoff fatigue and pre-preseason lull.

📌 Takeaway: Momentum is cooling but that’s normal for this time of year. Savvy collectors know the preseason buzz starts to build again in late summer.

📅 Best Time to Buy: April

Historically, April is the most cost-effective time to buy football cards, with an average market value of $28.39. That’s before NFL Draft hype and way before fantasy season starts moving prices.

📌 Takeaway: The NFL offseason is your window. April has historically offered the most value: low prices, minimal bidding wars, and pre-breakout positioning.

✅ Final Read Out: Football Card Market

This is not financial advice. This is an analytics read. Collecting is part science, part art.

🧠 Final Strategy

Football cards are timing-based, much like the sport itself. When the short-term momentum fades, that’s your moment. And the data says that moment is now.

🏒 When to Buy Hockey Cards: Undervalued, Underrated, and Poised to Climb

❄️ Is Hockey the Hobby’s Best-Kept Secret?

While hockey cards often fly under the radar in the collectibles world, serious collectors know the upside is real, and sometimes overlooked. The question we’re answering this week:

“Is this a good time to buy hockey cards, or should I wait?”

CardBoard Compass gives us an edge, revealing when this market cools, and when it heats up.

📈 Long-Term Forecast: Solid Growth Ahead

The data forecasts a +9.15% increase in average card values by March 2026. That’s among the top performers this cycle: ahead of Pokémon, basketball, and Magic. It suggests a healthy appetite for the category, possibly driven by young talent and global expansion.

📌 Takeaway: Hockey may be the most underappreciated growth segment, nearly 10% gains forecasted.

📉 MACD Trend: Short-Term Momentum is Cooling

Current MACD trend is “High Down”, meaning it’s coming off a strong run but now settling. This often indicates consolidation and can create ideal entry points.

📌 Takeaway: Smart collectors often move in after the MACD peak, and that moment appears to be now.

📅 Best Month to Buy: December

December is historically the lowest-value month for hockey cards, averaging just $19.78. This reflects off-season sentiment, holiday spend shifts, and lowered bidding activity.

📌 Takeaway: While others shop for gifts, you can shop for grails, December is your prime time to grab undervalued slabs and inserts.

✅ Final Read Out: Hockey Card Market

This is not financial advice. This is an analytics read. Collecting is part science, part art.

🧊 Final Thoughts

Don’t let the quiet fool you, hockey is heating up under the surface. With a strong 12-month projection and a cyclical buyer dip, this winter may be the coolest time to make your smartest play.

⚽ When to Buy Soccer Cards: Steady Growth with Spring Savings

🌍 Global Appeal, But Is It the Right Time to Buy?

Soccer cards carry a worldwide fanbase, especially as major tournaments like the World Cup and Euros approach. Yet the question lingers:

“Is now a smart time to invest in soccer cards, or should I wait?”

Using CardBoard Compass, we break down where the soccer market stands, and where it’s headed.

📈 Long-Term Forecast: Moderate Upside

The forecast shows a +4.12% increase in market value by March 2026. While not the highest return among card categories, it reflects measured optimism, likely linked to consistent global collector interest and potential event-driven spikes.

📌 Takeaway: Soccer may not be booming, but it’s building. Stable, diversified demand helps reduce volatility.

📉 MACD Trend: Cooling Off

The MACD trend reads “Med Down”, signaling a short-term slowdown in buyer activity, likely post-tournament fatigue or off-season calm across leagues.

📌 Takeaway: A cooling trend can present opportunities. Before the next Champions League push or national team event, it may be time to buy the dip.

📅 Best Month to Buy: April

April stands out as the lowest average value month, with prices around $25.30. This dip may reflect the pre-summer break in most leagues, when headlines shift to other sports.

📌 Takeaway: April is your springboard, with low prices before national teams and club transfers reignite market activity.

✅ Final Read Out: Soccer Card Market

This is not financial advice. This is an analytics read. Collecting is part science, part art.

🌐 Final Whistle

Soccer cards aren’t about sprints, they’re about long matches and big moments. With modest gains forecasted and prices at seasonal lows, collectors might find April to be the tactical play that pays off when the world tunes in again.

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