NFL QB Propensity Model – Predictor for sports card values

Date : August, 1st, 2023

Tom – @pancake_analytics

No	Player	Total Cards	Current Value	Avg Value per index card	average of list	greater than average	model selection	Games	QB Winning prec	Cmp%	y/a	TD	Int	FanPt	ProBowl	All-Pro	SB Champ	SB MVP	AP MVP	propensity score	predicted	prediction_rate
1	Tom Brady	552	185829	336.6467391	150	1	1	326	0.753753754	0.643	7.4	649	212	5943.4	15	3	7	5	3	0.999952046	1	TRUE
43	John Elway	10	2374	237.4	150	1	1	206	0.640692641	0.569	7.1	300	226	3220.6	9	0	2	1	1	0.999881077	1	TRUE
39	Eli Manning	12	7353	612.75	150	1	1	169	0.5	0.603	7	366	244	3251.6	4	0	2	2	0	0.999613104	1	TRUE
47	Bart Starr	10	8710	871	150	1	0	115	0.598726115	0.574	7.8	152	138	1477.5	4	1	2	2	1	0.998663837	1	TRUE
36	Warren Moon	14	3948	282	150	1	1	163	0.502463054	0.584	7.2	291	233	2834.6	9	0	0	0	0	0.99828721	1	TRUE
42	Brett Farve	10	2104	210.4	150	1	1	259	0.624161074	0.62	7.1	508	336	4371.2	11	3	1	0	3	0.998065908	1	TRUE
49	Joe Namath	9	6172	685.7777778	150	1	0	115	0.480620155	0.501	7.4	173	220	1387.5	5	1	1	1	0	0.996347844	1	TRUE
38	Terry Bradshaw	12	5005	417.0833333	150	1	1	140	0.67721519	0.519	7.2	212	210	1881.5	3	1	4	2	1	0.995887365	1	TRUE
21	Joe Montana	28	9177	327.75	150	1	1	166	0.713414634	0.632	7.5	273	139	2669.5	8	3	4	3	2	0.98127861	1	TRUE
14	Drew Brees	50	63410	1268.2	150	1	1	277	0.601398601	0.677	7.6	571	243	5185	13	1	1	1	0	0.975654515	1	TRUE
60	Philip Rivers	4	8879	2219.75	150	1	0	218	0.558333333	0.649	7.8	421	209	3812.8	8	0	0	0	0	0.968497505	1	TRUE
61	Phil Simms	3	665	221.6666667	150	1	0	118	0.597484277	0.554	7.2	199	157	1889.4	2	0	2	1	0	0.943328254	1	TRUE
32	Roger Statubach	17	3737	219.8235294	150	1	1	127	0.745614035	0.57	7.7	153	109	1592	6	0	2	1	0	0.942750262	1	TRUE
57	Troy Aikman	5	1309	261.8	150	1	0	120	0.56969697	0.615	7	165	141	1797.5	6	0	3	1	0	0.92219866	1	TRUE
2	Patrick Mahomes	289	63710	220.449827	150	1	1	94	0.8	0.663	8.1	192	49	1867	5	2	2	2	2	0.920221462	1	TRUE
17	Donovan McNabb	41	927	22.6097561	150	0	0	138	0.608695652	0.59	6.9	234	117	2636.2	6	0	0	0	0	0.810779141	1	FALSE
26	Jay Cutler	18	66	3.666666667	150	0	0	109	0.483660131	0.62	7.1	227	160	2165.5	1	0	0	0	0	0.808228449	1	FALSE
53	Matt Ryan	8	5355	669.375	150	1	0	210	0.52991453	0.656	7.4	381	183	3832.1	4	1	0	0	1	0.790126392	1	TRUE
8	Aaron Rodgers	106	21449	202.3490566	150	1	1	231	0.659192825	0.653	7.7	475	105	4569.6	10	4	1	1	4	0.772827924	1	TRUE
22	Cam Newton	25	2254	90.16	150	0	0	140	0.520833333	0.599	7.2	194	123	2827.1	3	1	0	0	1	0.76965228	1	FALSE
52	Michael Vick	8	2760	345	150	1	0	112	0.539823009	0.562	7	133	88	2001.5	4	0	0	0	0	0.767226163	1	TRUE
46	John Unitas	10	6545	654.5	150	1	1	145	0.637837838	0.546	7.8	290	253	2424.4	10	5	1	0	3	0.646349755	1	TRUE
58	Jameis Winston	5	1983	396.6	150	1	0	66	0.425	0.613	7.7	139	96	1397.7	1	0	0	0	0	0.635055288	1	TRUE
62	Derek Carr	3	2450	816.6666667	150	1	0	100	0.443661972	0.646	7.1	217	99	2146.6	4	0	0	0	0	0.610943589	1	TRUE
34	Jim Kelly	16	1889	118.0625	150	0	0	132	0.63125	0.601	7.4	237	175	2086.7	5	1	0	0	0	0.609088532	1	FALSE
4	Peyton Manning	215	5461	25.4	150	0	0	271	0.701886792	0.653	7.7	539	251	4686.3	14	7	2	1	5	0.555842296	1	FALSE
51	Andrew Luck	8	2133	266.625	150	1	0	80	0.61627907	0.608	7.2	171	83	1686.2	4	0	0	0	0	0.554851118	1	TRUE
45	Kirk Cousins	10	3609	360.9	150	1	1	109	0.525547445	0.668	7.6	252	105	2450.7	4	0	0	0	0	0.529193402	1	TRUE
30	Ben Roethlisberger	18	3977	220.9444444	150	1	1	208	0.668016194	0.644	7.6	418	211	4019.5	6	0	2	0	0	0.490541469	0	FALSE
35	Dan Marino	15	2445	163	150	1	1	216	0.6125	0.594	7.3	420	252	3594.5	9	3	0	0	1	0.457162951	0	FALSE
11	Russell Wilson	68	1541	22.66176471	150	0	0	167	0.624277457	0.646	7.8	308	98	3284.1	9	0	1	0	0	0.434777692	0	TRUE
50	Jared Goff	9	15000	1666.666667	150	1	0	79	0.54	0.642	7.4	155	70	1590	3	0	0	0	0	0.412452445	0	FALSE
56	Jarrett Stidham	5	830	166	150	1	0	4	0	0.588	7.1	6	7	53.9	0	0	0	0	0	0.384727241	0	FALSE
29	Sam Darnold	18	2820	156.6666667	150	1	1	27	0.381818182	0.597	6.7	61	55	735.2	0	0	0	0	0	0.373365122	0	FALSE
48	Jordan Love	9	527	58.55555556	150	0	0	3	0	0.602	7.3	3	3	32.8	0	0	0	0	0	0.357247635	0	TRUE
15	Matthew Stafford	44	1844	41.90909091	150	0	0	155	0.465968586	0.632	7.3	333	169	3246.1	1	0	1	0	0	0.343933798	0	TRUE
16	Deshaun Watson	43	975	22.6744186	150	0	0	59	0.525423729	0.67	8.2	111	41	1275.5	3	0	0	0	0	0.324088606	0	TRUE
41	Josh Rosen	11	1786	162.3636364	150	1	1	3	0.1875	0.54	5.6	12	21	127.7	0	0	0	0	0	0.323114582	0	FALSE
12	Baker Mayfield	58	736	12.68965517	150	0	0	51	0.449275362	0.614	7.2	102	64	1079.2	0	0	0	0	0	0.320710947	0	TRUE
25	Justin Fields	20	42	2.1	150	0	0	22	0.2	0.597	7	24	21	422.8	0	0	0	0	0	0.320228363	0	TRUE
10	Klyer Murray	83	307	3.698795181	150	0	0	54	0.438596491	0.668	7	84	41	1165	2	0	0	0	0	0.274419489	0	TRUE
44	Teddy Bridgewater	10	3433	343.3	150	1	1	53	0.507692308	0.664	7.3	75	47	959.7	1	0	0	0	0	0.25507458	0	FALSE
40	Zach Wilson	11	4	0.363636364	150	0	0	9	0.363636364	0.552	6.4	15	18	249.8	0	0	0	0	0	0.247746713	0	TRUE
20	Trevor Lawrence	28	21	0.75	150	0	0	21	0.352941176	0.629	6.5	37	25	494.6	1	0	0	0	0	0.247152082	0	TRUE
59	Will Grier	4	132	33	150	0	0	1	0	0.538	4.4	0	4	1.3	0	0	0	0	0	0.244165169	0	TRUE
54	Dwayne Haskins	7	413	59	150	0	0	4	0.230769231	0.601	6.3	12	14	144.9	0	0	0	0	0	0.232267991	0	TRUE
7	Josh Allen	141	18532	131.4326241	150	0	0	74	0.684210526	0.625	7.2	138	60	1689.9	2	0	0	0	0	0.230720528	0	TRUE
23	Dak Prescott	22	619	28.13636364	150	0	0	88	0.628865979	0.666	7.6	166	65	1825.1	2	0	0	0	0	0.214610887	0	TRUE
33	Drew Lock	16	883	55.1875	150	0	0	12	0.380952381	0.593	6.7	25	20	300.2	0	0	0	0	0	0.210659948	0	TRUE
55	Mitchell Trubisky	7	503	71.85714286	150	0	0	39	0.563636364	0.642	6.7	68	43	836	1	0	0	0	0	0.20593019	0	TRUE
37	Trey Lance	13	5	0.384615385	150	0	0	4	0.5	0.549	7.8	5	3	77.4	0	0	0	0	0	0.20133755	0	TRUE
31	Daniel Jones	17	2565	150.8823529	150	1	1	40	0.396226415	0.64	6.7	60	34	850.5	0	0	0	0	0	0.180057029	0	FALSE
19	Mac Jones	29	56	1.931034483	150	0	0	22	0.516129032	0.665	7.1	36	24	395	1	0	0	0	0	0.176821735	0	TRUE
27	Gardner Minshew	18	198	11	150	0	0	21	0.333333333	0.628	7.1	44	15	459.4	0	0	0	0	0	0.161040168	0	TRUE
5	Justin Herbert	201	1100	5.472636816	150	0	0	45	0.510204082	0.669	7.2	94	35	992.9	1	0	0	0	0	0.145516763	0	TRUE
9	Lamar Jackson	89	13382	150.3595506	150	1	1	74	0.737704918	0.637	7.4	101	38	1382.1	2	1	0	0	1	0.144396506	0	FALSE
6	Jalen Hurts	172	520	3.023255814	150	0	0	41	0.676470588	0.623	7.6	44	19	798.3	1	0	0	0	0	0.142196884	0	TRUE
3	Joe Burrow	219	1005	4.589041096	150	0	0	39	0.571428571	0.682	7.7	82	31	838.6	1	0	0	0	0	0.137861209	0	TRUE
18	Steve Young	30	2021	67.36666667	150	0	0	168	0.657342657	0.643	8	232	107	2662.1	7	3	3	1	2	0.118801572	0	TRUE
13	Tua Tagovailoa	54	1078	19.96296296	150	0	0	24	0.617647059	0.657	7.4	52	23	547.3	0	0	0	0	0	0.098177509	0	TRUE
28	Carson Wentz	18	805	44.72222222	150	0	0	97	0.5	0.626	6.7	151	66	1532.5	1	0	1	0	0	0.076775197	0	TRUE
24	Jimmy Garoppolo	21	1403	66.80952381	150	0	0	50	0.701754386	0.676	8.3	87	42	885.7	0	0	2	0	0	0.011127463	0	TRUE

Share this: