2024 NFL Quarterback Propensity Scoring Tool
Attention sports card collectors, the tool I developed for you is updated for the upcoming 2024 season. As a refresher, this tool was launched at the 43rd National Sports Collectors Convention through my presentation at the CGC Cards stage. In this iteration, you’ll see how the fall of Tom Brady’s prices impacts our model, along with a year-over-year migration matrix of the value segments.
Completion % & Winning %
The above chart is responsive and seeks to show you the correlation between a NFL QB’s completion percentage and their individual winning percentage.
Trading Card Index Value & TDs
The above chart is responsive and seeks to show you the correlation between a NFL QB’s CardLadder Trading Card Index Value and their individual Total Career Touchdowns.
Passing Yards Per Attempt
The above chart is responsive and seeks to show you the correlation between a NFL QB’s passing yards per attempt and their individual CardLadder Trading Card Index Value.
NFL QB Winning Percentage
The above chart is responsive and seeks to show you the correlation between a NFL QB’s winning percentage and their individual CardLadder Trading Card Index Value.
Pancake Analytics | NFL | Quarterback | Propensity Scores
| wdt_ID | wdt_created_by | wdt_created_at | wdt_last_edited_by | wdt_last_edited_at | No | Player | propensity score | Total Cards | Current Value | Avg Value per index card | average of list | greater than average | model selection | games | QB winning prec | Cmp% | y/a | TD | Int | FanPt | ProwBowl | All-Pro | SB Champ | SB MVP | AP MVP | predicted | prediction_rate | scored_date | model_year | rank | active_player |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | 1 | Tom Brady | 1.00 | 552.00 | 185,829.00 | 336.65 | 150.00 | 1 | 1 | 326.00 | 0.75 | 0.64 | 7.40 | 649.00 | 212.00 | 5,943.40 | 15.00 | 3.00 | 7.00 | 5.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | TRUE | 2023-07-01 | 2023 | 1 | No |
| 64 | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | 2 | Eli Manning | 1.00 | 12.00 | 7,353.00 | 612.75 | 150.00 | 1 | 1 | 169.00 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 7.00 | 366.00 | 244.00 | 3,251.60 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | TRUE | 2023-07-01 | 2023 | 2 | No |
| 65 | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | 3 | John Elway | 1.00 | 10.00 | 2,374.00 | 237.40 | 150.00 | 1 | 1 | 206.00 | 0.64 | 0.57 | 7.10 | 300.00 | 226.00 | 3,220.60 | 9.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | TRUE | 2023-07-01 | 2023 | 3 | No |
| 66 | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | 4 | Bart Starr | 1.00 | 10.00 | 8,710.00 | 871.00 | 150.00 | 1 | 0 | 115.00 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 7.80 | 152.00 | 138.00 | 1,477.50 | 4.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | TRUE | 2023-07-01 | 2023 | 4 | No |
| 67 | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | 5 | Warren Moon | 1.00 | 14.00 | 3,948.00 | 282.00 | 150.00 | 1 | 1 | 163.00 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 7.20 | 291.00 | 233.00 | 2,834.60 | 9.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | TRUE | 2023-07-01 | 2023 | 5 | No |
| 68 | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | 6 | Brett Farve | 1.00 | 10.00 | 2,104.00 | 210.40 | 150.00 | 1 | 1 | 259.00 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 7.10 | 508.00 | 336.00 | 4,371.20 | 11.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | TRUE | 2023-07-01 | 2023 | 6 | No |
| 69 | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | 7 | Terry Bradshaw | 1.00 | 12.00 | 5,005.00 | 417.08 | 150.00 | 1 | 1 | 140.00 | 0.68 | 0.52 | 7.20 | 212.00 | 210.00 | 1,881.50 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | TRUE | 2023-07-01 | 2023 | 7 | No |
| 70 | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | 8 | Joe Namath | 1.00 | 9.00 | 6,172.00 | 685.78 | 150.00 | 1 | 0 | 115.00 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 7.40 | 173.00 | 220.00 | 1,387.50 | 5.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | TRUE | 2023-07-01 | 2023 | 8 | No |
| 71 | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | 9 | Joe Montana | 0.98 | 28.00 | 9,177.00 | 327.75 | 150.00 | 1 | 1 | 166.00 | 0.71 | 0.63 | 7.50 | 273.00 | 139.00 | 2,669.50 | 8.00 | 3.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | TRUE | 2023-07-01 | 2023 | 9 | No |
| 72 | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | ferrt041 | 06/20/2024 05:12 PM | 10 | Drew Brees | 0.98 | 50.00 | 63,410.00 | 1,268.20 | 150.00 | 1 | 1 | 277.00 | 0.60 | 0.68 | 7.60 | 571.00 | 243.00 | 5,185.00 | 13.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | TRUE | 2023-07-01 | 2023 | 10 | No |
| Player | scored_date | model_year | active_player |
Longitudinal Insights: Migration of NFL Quarterback Trading Card Values from 2023 to 2024
We’re seeing the results of the downfall of Tom Brady card prices and how this impacts our model. The weight to predicting card value is now on pro-bowl appearances and total fantasy points, while categories where Brady shined above others, such as Super Bowls and Super Bowl MVPs, are no longer strong predictors of price value.
The model also identifies the trend of decline in Mahomes prices since winning a Super Bowl now paired with the similar trends of the Brady card market will show an interesting narrative around Mahomes card prices.
NFL Quarterback Value Migration Matrix: 2023 to 2024
A migration matrix is a tool used to track changes in value segments over time. The left side represents last year’s value segments, and the right side represents this year’s value segments, displaying the percentage of NFL QBs moving to different segments or retaining their previous segment. Green shaded cells indicate good upward migration, while red shaded cells highlight a strong loss in value.
Top Value Segments & Upward Migration
Downward Migration & Our Biggest Loser
