Introduction to the analysis
Navigating the intricate tapestry of the collectibles market, the influence of prominent figures on specific trading card niches remains a captivating area of study. This causal impact time-series embarks on a multifaceted exploration, seeking to unravel the repercussions of super collector Steve Aoki’s engagements within three distinct realms: the Disney Lorcana Chapter One Booster Box sales market, the vintage Star Wars card market, and the Marvel trading card domain.
- Disney Lorcana Chapter One Booster Box Sales Market: In the first thread of our analysis, we scrutinize the profound question of what transpires within the Disney Lorcana Chapter One Booster Box sales market when Steve Aoki, a luminary collector with a penchant for cultural artifacts, announces his intention to part ways with select cards from this coveted set. This investigation seeks to quantify the impact of Aoki’s influence on market dynamics, examining fluctuations in demand, pricing, and collector sentiment that may ensue following his announcement.
- Vintage Star Wars Card Market: Shifting our focus to a galaxy far, far away, we explore the causal impact of Steve Aoki’s actions on the Star Wars card market. Specifically, we delve into the aftermath of his notable acquisition of vintage Star Wars cards from Heritage Auctions. By dissecting the temporal evolution of this market segment, we aim to discern the lasting effects of Aoki’s involvement, shedding light on how a high-profile collector’s transactions can resonate within the broader Star Wars card collecting community.
- Marvel Trading Cards: Precious Metal Gems Set: The third facet of our inquiry centers on the Marvel trading card landscape. With a spotlight on Steve Aoki’s announcement of acquiring an entire red precious metal gems set, we seek to unravel the ensuing causal impact on this niche market. By employing a time-series lens, we aspire to quantify shifts in market behavior, investor interest, and card valuations resulting from Aoki’s strategic and influential moves within the Marvel trading card sphere.
This comprehensive exploration endeavors to provide a nuanced understanding of the causal relationships between Steve Aoki’s actions and the temporal dynamics of trading card markets. Through rigorous analysis and data-driven insights, we aim to decipher the intricate interplay between celebrity collectors, market trends, and the ever-evolving landscape of collectibles.
Disney | Casual Impact Time-Series | Lorcana | Steve Aoki Super Collector Impact
In the dynamic world of collectibles, where nostalgia meets investment, the market for trading cards has witnessed intriguing shifts and influences. One fascinating case study revolves around the impact of renowned super collector and influential figure Steve Aoki on the sales market of the Disney Lorcana Chapter One Booster Box. The unveiling of a unique and curated collection by Aoki has the potential to send ripples through the trading card community. This causal impact time-series aims to delve into the fluctuations within the Disney Lorcana Chapter One Booster Box sales market, exploring the consequential effects triggered by Steve Aoki’s announcement of selling cards from this particular set.
As a figure with significant influence and a history of shaping trends in the collectibles space, Steve Aoki’s involvement in trading cards extends beyond personal passion. The mere mention of his engagement with a specific set, such as Disney Lorcana Chapter One, can evoke responses that reverberate throughout the collector community. By scrutinizing this scenario through the lens of a causal impact time-series analysis, we endeavor to unravel the intricate dynamics at play and quantify the extent to which Steve Aoki’s actions catalyze shifts in market behavior and demand. This investigation promises insights into the interplay between celebrity endorsement, collector sentiment, and market trends, providing a deeper understanding of the nuances within the trading card landscape.
There’s a couple of milestones of Steve Aoki’s Lorcana collecting, at least made visible via instagram.
On September 4, 2023 he showed off his PSA 10 Gem Mint D23 Exclusive Mickey Mouse Promo card as a throwback post and to share his excitement for the release of chapter one. The same cert of a PSA 10 Gem Mint D23 Exclusive Mickey Mouse which sold on eBay ( the feedback number aligns to his aokiscardhouse eBay store , indicating most likely this was his point of purchase ).
The milestone I will be using as the event in this casual impact time-series exercise occurs on May 12, 2023, the aokiscardhouse instagram account shares a reel with the caption ” All for sale up on auction on our @ebay account #aokiscardhouse “. This begs the question what happens when a super collector “dumps” cards on eBay?
The above graph is the average sold price of a booster box of Lorcana Chapter One , according to Terapeak , between January 23rd 2023 and June 26th 2023 ( this gives us give us 6 data points after Aoki’s post ). One could simply do a pre versus post look without modelling , the issue this raises is there could be multiple factors impacting the sales and you are not narrowing it down to only what happens when a super collector “dumps” cards on eBay?
The above graph is a sales forecast built off of the actual sales of Disney’s Lorcana Chapter One booster boxes before Aoki’s instagram post. Next step I’ll apply a smoothing spline to the forecast as shown below.
As reminder the blue line is the forecast before Aoki’s instagram post, this represents our best prediction of the average price sold for Disney’s Lorcana Chapter One booster box sales before the post. I split a spline smoother through the forecast data to help interpret and visualize the trend.
Now the above graph is updated with the actual average sold price of Disney’s Lorcana First Chapter through June 26th 2023 ( over a month after Aoki’s post ).
Average sold price shows an immediate decline with the except of our last data point ( we could we argue the causation of that data point, i.e. delay reprint or lack of transparency of a reprint, even a high end sale of an enchanted card, etc. ), which our forecast did also expect an increase ( seasonal pattern ).
I am able to make this statement by noticing the difference between the forecasted trend before Aoki’s post and the actual average sold price data.
In our last step before calculating causal impact, I’ve added an additional spline to the actual average sold price data, this is the yellow line on the graph.
Now to answer : what happens when a super collector “dumps” cards on eBay?
The calculation to this answer would be ( since we live in a latest comp world ) the difference between the two smoothed data points on June 26th, 2023 ( forecasted smooth of 241 and an actual smooth of 140 ).
Calculating this gives us :
Therefore, the percent change between the forecasted smooth of 241 and the actual smooth of 140 is approximately -41.91%. The negative value indicates a decrease or a reduction in value.
Let’s tie this back to our question : what happens when a super collector “dumps” cards on eBay?
Answer : For Disney’s Lorcana Chapter One booster boxes, the average price sold drops nearly 42% over the next month when a super collector ( such as Steve Aoki ) sells from his collection.
Stars Wars | Casual Impact Time-Series | Heritage Auctions | Steve Aoki Super Collector Impact
Continuing on this journey into the dynamic world of collectibles, our causal impact time-series ventures into the realm of the Star Wars Card Market, seeking to unravel the repercussions of a significant event—the announcement by super collector Steve Aoki that he has secured high-end vintage Star Wars cards.
As we delve into the temporal aspects of this event, our primary objective is to decipher the impact of Steve Aoki’s involvement on the Star Wars Card Market ( As defined by the CardLadder Star Wars Index ) . What unfolds within this niche, characterized by its dedicated enthusiasts and iconic franchise, when a notable figure of Aoki’s stature makes a high-profile entry into the scene?
By employing the causal impact time-series analysis again, I aim to meticulously trace the patterns of change in various facets of the market—be it pricing trends, collector sentiment, or broader market dynamics. The announcement of Aoki’s acquisition of high-end vintage Star Wars cards serves as a pivotal moment, and our exploration endeavors to quantify and understand the causal relationships that unfold in the wake of this revelation.
There’s a couple of milestones of Steve Aoki’s Star Wars collecting, at least made visible via instagram.
On June 29, 2023 he showed off his return from Goldin Auctions, one item being the highest sale of a modern Star Wars card to date: 2022 Star Wars Galaxy Chrome Darth Vader Portrait 1/1 Superfractor.
On January 22nd, 2024 he revealed a mail day from Heritage Auctions, the gem mint blue border vintage Star Wars cards including the highest sale to date for the “Luke Skywalker Rookie Card”.
The milestone I will be using as the event in this casual impact time-series exercise occurs on November 9th, 2023, the actual sale date of the Heritage Auctions. This begs the question what happens when a super collector makes the highest known public sale to date?
The above graph is the average index value of the Star Wars Index, according to CardLadder , between September 11th, 2022 and January 28th, 2024 ( this gives us give us 12 data points after Aoki’s purchase ). As with the Lorcana impact analysis, one could simply do a pre versus post look without modelling , the issue this raises is there could be multiple factors impacting the sales and you are not narrowing it down to only what happens when a super collector makes the highest known public sale to date?
The above graph is a sales forecast built off of the actual sales of Star Wars index before Aoki’s Heritage Auctions purchase. Next step I’ll apply a smoothing spline to the forecast as shown below, same approach as the Lorcana analysis ( want to be transparent and show I’m not skipping steps ).
As reminder the blue line is the forecast before Aoki’s Heritage Auctions purchase, this represents our best prediction of the average value for the Star Wars Index before the purchase. I split a spline smoother through the forecast data to help interpret and visualize the trend.
Now the above graph is updated with the actual index value of the Star Wars Index through January 28th, 2024 ( roughly two months after Aoki’s purchase ).
The index value of the Star Wars Index shows an immediate increase in value, this is an inherited bias because Aoki set the all time high of several cards in the Star Wars index. This inherited bias is an example of all the outside market forces I often discuss and hopefully paints the picture well for why there is value in applying more advanced analytics approaches ( pre vs post, or speaking about “lines and graphs” does not cut it for these complex biasies ).
I am able to make this statement by noticing the difference between the forecasted trend before Aoki’s purchase and the actual index value data.
In our last step before calculating causal impact, I’ve added an additional spline to the actual average sold price data, this is the yellow line on the graph.
Now to answer : what happens when a super collector makes the highest known public sale to date?
The calculation to this answer would be ( since we live in a latest comp world ) the difference between the two smoothed data points on January 28th, 2024 ( forecasted smooth of 6,710 and an actual smooth of 7,716 ).
Calculating this gives us :
Therefore, the percent change between the forecasted smooth of 6,710 and the actual smooth of 7,716 is approximately 15%. The positive value indicates a increase in value.
Let’s tie this back to our question : what happens when a super collector makes the highest known public sale to date?
Answer : For the overall Star Wars Index, the average index value increases nearly 15% over the next two months when a super collector ( such as Steve Aoki ) purchases for his personal collection.
As I conclude my comprehensive causal impact time-series analysis delving into the multifaceted influence of super collector Steve Aoki on trading card markets, let’s turn our attention to a pivotal moment within the Marvel trading card landscape. Our final exploration centers on the pronounced effects triggered by Steve Aoki’s public announcement on Instagram—the acquisition of a complete red precious metal gems Marvel set.
Throughout this extensive case study, we’ve dissected the temporal dynamics within the Lorcana, Star Wars, and Marvel trading card markets as they responded to Aoki’s strategic moves and high-profile acquisitions. Now, the focus narrows to the Marvel domain, where the allure of precious metal gems ignites the passions of collectors worldwide.
This concluding analysis aims to quantify the causal impact of Steve Aoki’s Instagram revelation on the Marvel trading card market. The Instagram post, serving as a crystalline moment in the timeline, has the potential to shape market sentiment, influence pricing trends, and contribute to the evolving narrative of Marvel card collecting. By scrutinizing the data through a causal impact lens, we endeavor to untangle the intricate web of relationships between Aoki’s publicized actions and the subsequent fluctuations in the Marvel trading card landscape.
There’s are several milestones of Steve Aoki’s Marvel collecting, he’s even showcased his collection in a very “MTV Crib” format, showcasing his complete sets of Marvel cards.
The milestone I will be using as the event in this casual impact time-series exercise occurs on April 4, 2022, the public instagram post by goldinco of Steve Aoki’s acquisition of the complete Red PMG Set for a record price, “Final Price : $225,000”. This begs the question what happens when an auction house announces brokering a deal to a super collector?
The above graph is the average index value of the Marvel Index, according to CardLadder , between May 24th, 2020 and June 26th, 2024 ( this gives us give us 12 data points after Aoki’s purchase ). As with the Lorcana and Star Wars impact analysis, one could simply do a pre versus post look without modelling , the issue this raises remains the same is there could be multiple factors impacting the sales and you are not narrowing it down to only what happens when an auction house announces brokering a deal to a super collector?
As you seen before for both Lorcana and Stars Wars now the above graph is a sales forecast built off of the actual sales of Marvel index before Aoki’s brokered deal with goldinco. Next step I’ll apply a smoothing spline to the forecast as shown below, same approach as the Lorcana and Star Wars analysis ( again I want to be transparent and show I’m not skipping steps ).
As reminder the blue line is the forecast before Aoki’s brokered deal with goldinco, this represents our best prediction of the average value for the Marvel Index before the purchase. I split a spline smoother through the forecast data to help interpret and visualize the trend.
Now the above graph is updated with the actual index value of the Marvel Index through June 26th, 2022 ( roughly two months after Aoki’s brokered deal with goldinco ).
The index value of the Marvel Index shows a slow decrease in value, this does not have the same inherited bias as the Heritage Star Wars Sales because it was brokered deal for a complete set and not easily recorded by CardLadder ( meaning I’m assuming the individual sales of these cards were not in a database than have an api call, similar to sales that happen at a local card shop or the national sport collectors convention ).
I am able to make this statement by noticing the difference between the forecasted trend before Aoki’s purchase and the actual index value data.
In our last step before calculating causal impact, I’ve added an additional spline to the actual average sold price data, this is the yellow line on the graph.
Now to answer : what happens when an auction house announces brokering a deal to a super collector?
The calculation to this answer would be ( since we live in a latest comp world ) the difference between the two smoothed data points on June 26th, 2024 ( forecasted smooth of 35,551 and an actual smooth of 36,576 ).
Calculating this gives :
Therefore, the percent change between the forecasted smooth of 35,551 and the actual smooth of 36,576 is approximately 3%. The positive value indicates a increase in value.
Let’s tie this back to our question : what happens when an auction house announces brokering a deal to a super collector?
Answer : For the overall Marvel Index, the average index value increases nearly 3% over the next two months when a super collector ( such as Steve Aoki ) purchases for his personal collection.
2.88% seems kind low impact right? There’s a few things to take into consideration.
1.) Marvel cards we’re already on a decline from the peak, this Aoki purchase over indexed. You could make the argument according to these results Marvel sales would have been down an additional 3% without Aoki’s purchase.
2.) There were additional Marvel precious metal gems on the goldin auction block, which begs the question how many super collectors of Marvel besides Steve Aoki are there? How many have his purchasing power? How many of those with his purchasing power were also in the market for a similar pmg when the auction block was ending? The subset gets smaller and smaller and smaller.
As I bring this causal impact time-series to a close, I want to express my deepest appreciation for your dedication in traversing through this intricate analysis. Your commitment to understanding the nuances of the trading card market is truly commendable.
In the realm of trading card dynamics, one figure stands out as a true catalyst of change – Steve Aoki, our Super Collector. His influence, though often acknowledged in sales data analyses and echoed in market updates by content creators, goes beyond mere attribution. It is an undeniable force that shapes the trajectories of markets in ways both profound and fascinating.
In the rhythm of the trading card world, Aoki’s collecting habits resonate far beyond the moments he chooses to make public. The impact is tangible, measurable, and, as revealed by our analysis, often profound. When Aoki chose to part ways with Lorcana cards, the market responded with a poignant nearly 42% decrease in average booster box sales of Disney’s Lorcana Chapter One. This, notably, transpired before the subsequent reprint, underlining the immediacy of Aoki’s influence.
The narrative extends to Aoki’s forays into Star Wars and Marvel, where high-profile acquisitions triggered subsequent increases of 15% and 3%, respectively, over the following 60 days. In a landscape where influencers may take credit for their perceived impact, none can match the rigorous analysis and quantitative precision brought forth by this analysis of Steve Aoki’s collecting impact.
Beyond the glamour of growing the hobby, Aoki’s actions leave an indelible mark that this thorough analysis can quantify. Your engagement in this journey underscores a shared appreciation for the profound impact of a Super Collector. Thank you for delving into the heart of these insights, where the pulse of the trading card market beats in harmony with the collecting passions of a true luminary.
