The Pancake Analytics Shiny Cardboard Forecast is the monthly results of a Holt-Winters time series model. Holt-Winters forecasting is a time series forecasting method that considers three components: level, trend, and seasonality. Collectors can leverage this Holt-Winters forecasting to make predictions about the future values of trading cards based on historical data. Here’s how collectors can leverage this method to identify good times to buy and sell trading cards:
- Data Collection:
- Pancake Analytics has gathered historical data from CardLadder on the values of the trading cards you are interested in. This dataset covers a significant period, capturing various market conditions, trends, and potential seasonality.
- Apply Holt-Winters Forecasting:
- Pancake Analytics utilizes the Holt-Winters forecasting model to analyze the historical data. The model will identify the level (average value), trend (direction and rate of change), and seasonality (repeating patterns) in the trading card values. The model will then generate forecasts based on these identified components.
- Identify Trends and Seasonality:
- Pancake Analytics analyzes the forecasted values to identify trends and seasonality patterns. Trends can help collectors understand the overall direction of value changes (e.g., increasing or decreasing over time), while seasonality patterns can highlight regular cycles in the market.
- Determine Optimal Buying Times:
- Pancake Analytics uses the forecasting results to identify periods where the model predicts an upcoming increase in card values. This can be an optimal time to buy, as it suggests potential future appreciation. Look for points in the forecast where the trend is expected to turn positive or when seasonality indicates a historical pattern of value increase.
- Recognize Optimal Selling Times:
- Similarly, Pancake Analytics identifies periods in the forecast where values are predicted to decrease or remain stable. These could be good times to consider selling, especially if the model suggests a potential downturn in the market. Recognizing peak points in the forecasted trend or understanding when seasonality tends to dip can guide decisions to maximize returns.
- Evaluate Forecast Accuracy:
- Pancake Analytics regularly assess the accuracy of the Holt-Winters forecasts by comparing the predicted values with actual market outcomes. Adjust the forecasting model as needed based on real-world performance to improve its accuracy over time.
- Consider External Factors:
- While Holt-Winters forecasting is powerful, it’s important to consider external factors that may impact the trading card market, such as player injuries, major events, or changes in collector trends. Incorporate this additional information into your decision-making process for a more comprehensive strategy.
- Adjust Collection:
- Based on the forecasting results and market conditions, adjust your trading card collection. Consider diversifying or reallocating resources to cards with more favorable forecasted trends and seasonality patterns.
In summary, the Pancake Analytics Shiny Cardboard Forecast provides a systematic approach for trading card collectors to analyze historical data, identify trends and seasonality, and make informed predictions about future card values. By leveraging this method, collectors can strategically time their buying and selling decisions to optimize their collections over time.
Pancake Analytics: Comprehensive Trading Card Forecast Overview
Comparing All Categories:
In this section, we present the latest forecast results, providing an insightful comparison across all major trading card categories. Our commitment to the analytics mindset ensures that you, as a collector, receive a comprehensive overview, empowering you to make informed decisions about your collection strategy.
Individual Trading Card Categories:
We delve into the specific details of each trading card category, offering a nuanced analysis for Marvel, Basketball, Pokemon, Hockey, Football, Baseball, Star Wars, and Soccer. Our unique approach goes beyond what other content creators and investment-focused channels provide. At Pancake Analytics, we prioritize the full picture, incorporating short-term insights, monthly trends, and normalized Key Performance Indicators (KPIs).
Why Pancake Analytics?
- Full Picture Approach:
- We go beyond the surface, providing a holistic view that includes short-term forecasts, monthly trends, and normalized KPIs for each trading card category. Our goal is to equip you with a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics.
- Analytics Mindset:
- Unlike traditional content creators, we bring an analytics mindset to the forefront. Our focus is on data-driven decision-making, ensuring that you have the correct amount of information to navigate the trading card market intelligently.
- Empowering Collectors:
- Our ultimate goal is to empower you as a collector. By presenting detailed and actionable insights, we enable you to make well-informed decisions about your collection strategy, maximizing the potential for growth and success in the market.
Key Elements of our Forecast Analysis:
- Short-Term Projections:
- Immediate insights into expected changes, guiding you on potential short-term buying and selling opportunities.
- Monthly Trends:
- Analysis of ongoing trends on a monthly basis, helping you understand the evolving dynamics within each trading card category.
- Normalized KPIs:
- Our normalized Key Performance Indicators offer a standardized metric for comparison across categories, allowing for a more accurate assessment of performance.
At Pancake Analytics, we believe in arming you with the most robust analytical tools and insights, ensuring that your passion for collecting aligns with a strategic and informed approach. Stay tuned for a deep dive into each trading card category, providing you with the knowledge needed to thrive in the ever-evolving world of trading cards.
In the above chart is the Monthly Change as forecasted through February ‘2024. This is derived from the output of holt winters time series model developed by @pancake_analytics. Please reach out on Instagram if you have any questions or feedback. This data is sourced through CardLadder indexes.
Hover over your category of interest and the value will appear.
In the above chart is the 1 Year Change as forecasted through February ‘2024. This is derived from the output of holt winters time series model developed by @pancake_analytics. Please reach out on Instagram if you have any questions or feedback. This data is sourced through CardLadder indexes.
Hover over your category of interest and the value will appear.
In the above chart is the 2 Year Change as forecasted through February ‘2024. This is derived from the output of holt winters time series model developed by @pancake_analytics. Please reach out on Instagram if you have any questions or feedback. This data is sourced through CardLadder indexes.
Hover over your category of interest and the value will appear.
In the above chart is a snap view of the trading card categories in 3 Key Performance indicators ( Monthly change, 1 year change, & 2 year change ) as forecasted through February ‘2024. This is derived from the output of holt winters time series model developed by @pancake_analytics. Please reach out on Instagram if you have any questions or feedback. This data is sourced through CardLadder indexes.
Hover over your category of interest and the value will appear.
The above monthly index in the context of trading card collecting can serve as a valuable tool for collectors looking to identify optimal times to buy and sell cards. The monthly index is essentially a performance metric that tracks the value changes of specific trading cards or the overall market on a monthly basis. Here’s how collectors can leverage a monthly index for strategic decision-making:
- Track Market Trends:
- The monthly index provides a historical overview of how the values of trading cards have changed over time. Collectors can identify trends, such as periods of growth, stability, or decline in the market. By analyzing these trends, collectors gain insights into the overall health of the market.
- Identify Seasonal Patterns:
- Some trading cards may exhibit seasonal patterns in terms of value fluctuations. For example, cards featuring players who perform exceptionally well during certain seasons or events might see increased demand and value during those times. The monthly index allows collectors to identify and anticipate such patterns.
- Buy Low, Sell High:
- Armed with historical data from the monthly index, collectors can strategically time their purchases and sales. Buying cards during periods of market downturns or when values are relatively low can maximize potential returns. Conversely, selling cards during peak periods can help collectors capitalize on increased demand and higher values.
- Evaluate Card-Specific Performance:
- The monthly index can be broken down to evaluate the performance of specific cards or card categories. Collectors can identify which cards are consistently performing well and which ones might be losing value. This information can guide collectors in adjusting their portfolios, focusing on cards with better potential for appreciation.
- Stay Informed About External Factors:
- External factors, such as player performance, major sports events, or pop culture trends, can significantly impact the trading card market. A monthly index allows collectors to correlate market movements with external events, helping them stay informed about potential catalysts for value changes.
- Diversify Portfolios:
- Through the insights gained from the monthly index, collectors can make informed decisions about diversifying their card portfolios. Diversification can mitigate risks associated with the fluctuating values of individual cards and provide a more balanced approach to collecting.
- Plan Long-Term Investments:
- Long-term investors can use the monthly index to identify cards or trends that show consistent growth over time. This approach allows collectors to make strategic decisions based on the long-term potential of certain cards or categories.
In summary, the above monthly index is a valuable tool for trading card collectors to analyze market trends, identify buying and selling opportunities, and make informed decisions to optimize their collections over time. Regularly reviewing the index can provide collectors with the insights needed to navigate the dynamic trading card market effectively.
Pancake Analytics Recap: Soccer Trading Cards – February 2024 Forecast
Executive Summary:
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the forecasted trends for soccer trading cards in February 2024. The predictions are based on a comprehensive analytics model, taking into account various timeframes to offer a holistic view of the market dynamics.
1. Year Over Year Change:
The model forecasts a significant year-over-year change, indicating a 14% decrease in the market for soccer trading cards compared to February 2023. This suggests a notable shift in demand and overall market conditions.
2. Month Over Month Change:
Contrary to the year-over-year trend, the month-over-month change predicts a more positive outlook with a 1% increase in the market for February 2024. This may indicate a short-term surge in interest or demand for soccer trading cards compared to the previous month.
3. Expected 2-Year Change:
Looking ahead, the model anticipates a substantial 43% decline in the soccer trading card market over the next two years. This longer-term projection suggests potential challenges or shifts in the market landscape that traders and collectors should be mindful of.
4. Year to Date Change:
The year-to-date change forecast indicates a 4% decrease in the market for soccer trading cards from the beginning of the year through February 2024. This metric provides insights into the overall performance and trajectory of the market since the start of the year.
5. 2-Year Year to Date Change:
When extending the analysis to a 2-year year-to-date change, the model projects a more pronounced 22% decrease. This emphasizes the importance of considering more extended timeframes when evaluating market trends and making informed decisions.
6. 3-Year Change:
Taking a longer-term perspective, the model projects a substantial 44% decrease in the soccer trading card market when considering the last three years. This indicates a more persistent downward trend and highlights the need for stakeholders to adapt to evolving market conditions.
Conclusion:
In summary, the February 2024 forecast for soccer trading cards suggests a nuanced market with varying trends depending on the timeframe considered. While short-term indicators point towards a slight increase, the overall outlook remains challenging with significant declines projected over longer periods. Stakeholders in the soccer trading card market should closely monitor these trends and adapt their strategies to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.
Pancake Analytics Recap: Hockey Trading Cards – February 2024 Forecast
Executive Summary:
This report delves into the anticipated market trends for hockey trading cards in February 2024, providing insights derived from a comprehensive analytics model. Examining various timeframes allows for a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics shaping the market.
1. Year Over Year Change:
The model forecasts a notable year-over-year change, indicating a 21% decrease in the market for hockey trading cards compared to February 2023. This signals a substantial shift in demand and market conditions within the past year.
2. Month Over Month Change:
In contrast to the year-over-year trend, the month-over-month change predicts a more positive outlook, with a 4% increase in the hockey trading card market for February 2024. This suggests a short-term surge in interest or demand compared to the preceding month.
3. Expected 2-Year Change:
Looking ahead to a 2-year timeframe, the model anticipates a 34% decline in the hockey trading card market. This longer-term projection underscores potential challenges or changes in market dynamics, urging stakeholders to adapt their strategies accordingly.
4. Year to Date Change:
The year-to-date change forecast offers a different perspective, indicating a 6% increase in the market for hockey trading cards from the beginning of the year through February 2024. This metric provides insights into the overall performance and trajectory of the market since the start of the year.
5. 2-Year Year to Date Change:
Expanding the analysis to a 2-year year-to-date change, the model projects a 28% decrease in the hockey trading card market. This emphasizes the importance of considering more extended timeframes when evaluating market trends and making strategic decisions.
6. 3-Year Change:
Taking a longer-term view, the model projects a 32% decrease in the hockey trading card market over the last three years. This suggests a persistent downward trend, highlighting the need for stakeholders to adapt to evolving market conditions.
Conclusion:
In summary, the February 2024 forecast for hockey trading cards reveals a nuanced market landscape with varying trends across different timeframes. While short-term indicators suggest a modest increase, the overall outlook remains challenging with substantial declines projected over longer periods. Stakeholders in the hockey trading card market should closely monitor these trends and make informed decisions to navigate the evolving market effectively.
Pancake Analytics Recap: Football Trading Cards – February 2024 Forecast
Executive Summary:
This report offers a comprehensive analysis of the anticipated market trends for football trading cards in February 2024. Utilizing a robust analytics model, insights are provided across various timeframes to facilitate a thorough understanding of the prevailing market dynamics.
1. Year Over Year Change:
The model forecasts a substantial year-over-year change, indicating a significant 36% decrease in the football trading card market compared to February 2023. This signals a noteworthy shift in demand and market conditions within the past year.
2. Month Over Month Change:
Contrary to the year-over-year trend, the month-over-month change predicts a modest decline, with a 2% decrease in the football trading card market for February 2024. This suggests a short-term dip in interest or demand compared to the previous month.
3. Expected 2-Year Change:
Looking ahead to a 2-year timeframe, the model anticipates a profound 65% decline in the football trading card market. This longer-term projection highlights potential challenges or changes in market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of strategic adaptation for stakeholders.
4. Year to Date Change:
The year-to-date change forecast provides a nuanced perspective, indicating a 3% increase in the market for football trading cards from the beginning of the year through February 2024. This metric sheds light on the overall performance and trajectory of the market since the start of the year.
5. 2-Year Year to Date Change:
Extending the analysis to a 2-year year-to-date change, the model projects a significant 45% decrease in the football trading card market. This underscores the importance of considering extended timeframes when evaluating market trends and making informed strategic decisions.
6. 3-Year Change:
Taking a longer-term view, the model projects a substantial 59% decrease in the football trading card market over the last three years. This suggests a persistent downward trend, urging stakeholders to adapt to evolving market conditions.
Conclusion:
In summary, the February 2024 forecast for football trading cards indicates a challenging market landscape with varying trends across different timeframes. While short-term indicators suggest a modest decline, the overall outlook remains concerning, with significant declines projected over longer periods. Stakeholders in the football trading card market should closely monitor these trends and implement informed strategies to navigate the evolving market effectively.
Pancake Analytics Recap: Pokémon Trading Cards – February 2024 Forecast
Executive Summary:
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the forecasted trends for Pokemon trading cards in February 2024. Leveraging advanced analytics, the insights cover various timeframes to offer a holistic view of the evolving market dynamics.
1. Year Over Year Change:
The model forecasts a positive year-over-year change, indicating an 8% increase in the market for Pokemon trading cards compared to February 2023. This suggests a favorable growth trajectory and heightened demand in the Pokemon trading card market.
2. Month Over Month Change:
In alignment with the positive year-over-year trend, the month-over-month change predicts a further 4% increase in the Pokemon trading card market for February 2024. This indicates sustained interest and a short-term surge in demand compared to the preceding month.
3. Expected 2-Year Change:
Surprisingly, looking ahead to a 2-year timeframe, the model anticipates a substantial 43% decline in the Pokemon trading card market. This projection may signal potential challenges or shifts in market dynamics that stakeholders should carefully navigate.
4. Year to Date Change:
The year-to-date change forecast indicates a marginal 1% decrease in the market for Pokemon trading cards from the beginning of the year through February 2024. While a decrease is projected, it is relatively modest and warrants attention for potential changes in market conditions.
5. 2-Year Year to Date Change:
Extending the analysis to a 2-year year-to-date change, the model surprisingly projects a 10% increase in the Pokemon trading card market. This contrast underscores the importance of considering diverse timeframes for a comprehensive understanding of market trends.
6. 3-Year Change:
Taking a longer-term perspective, the model projects a notable 33% increase in the Pokemon trading card market over the last three years. This suggests a sustained upward trend and highlights the enduring popularity of Pokemon trading cards.
Conclusion:
In summary, the February 2024 forecast for Pokemon trading cards portrays a market characterized by both positive and challenging trends. While short-term and year-over-year indicators point towards growth, an unexpected decline is projected over a 2-year timeframe. Stakeholders should carefully assess these dynamics and adapt strategies to navigate the evolving market effectively, considering both short-term and long-term perspectives.
Pancake Analytics Recap: Marvel Trading Cards – February 2024 Forecast
Executive Summary:
This report provides a detailed analysis of the forecasted trends for Marvel trading cards in February 2024. Utilizing advanced analytics, the insights encompass various timeframes to offer a comprehensive perspective on the evolving market conditions.
1. Year Over Year Change:
The model forecasts a significant year-over-year change, indicating a substantial 30% decrease in the market for Marvel trading cards compared to February 2023. This signals a notable shift in demand and market dynamics within the past year.
2. Month Over Month Change:
In tandem with the year-over-year trend, the month-over-month change predicts a significant 19% decrease in the Marvel trading card market for February 2024. This indicates a short-term decline in interest or demand compared to the previous month.
3. Expected 2-Year Change:
Looking ahead to a 2-year timeframe, the model anticipates a substantial 76% decline in the Marvel trading card market. This longer-term projection suggests significant challenges or changes in market conditions, necessitating strategic adaptation by stakeholders.
4. Year to Date Change:
The year-to-date change forecast presents a 7% decrease in the market for Marvel trading cards from the beginning of the year through February 2024. This metric provides insights into the overall performance and trajectory of the market since the start of the year.
5. 2-Year Year to Date Change:
Extending the analysis to a 2-year year-to-date change, the model projects a substantial 55% decrease in the Marvel trading card market. This underscores the importance of considering extended timeframes when evaluating market trends and making strategic decisions.
6. 3-Year Change:
Taking a longer-term view, the model projects a noteworthy 69% decrease in the Marvel trading card market over the last three years. This suggests a persistent downward trend, emphasizing the need for stakeholders to adapt to evolving market conditions.
Conclusion:
In summary, the February 2024 forecast for Marvel trading cards indicates a challenging market landscape characterized by significant declines across various timeframes. Stakeholders should carefully monitor these trends and implement informed strategies to navigate the evolving market effectively, acknowledging both short-term challenges and enduring downward trajectories.
Pancake Analytics Recap: Basketball Trading Cards – February 2024 Forecast
Executive Summary:
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the forecasted trends for basketball trading cards in February 2024. Leveraging advanced analytics, the insights cover various timeframes to offer a comprehensive view of the evolving market dynamics.
1. Year Over Year Change:
The model forecasts a substantial year-over-year change, indicating a significant 34% decrease in the market for basketball trading cards compared to February 2023. This signals a noteworthy shift in demand and market conditions within the past year.
2. Month Over Month Change:
In alignment with the year-over-year trend, the month-over-month change predicts an 8% decrease in the basketball trading card market for February 2024. This indicates a short-term decline in interest or demand compared to the previous month.
3. Expected 2-Year Change:
Looking ahead to a 2-year timeframe, the model anticipates a substantial 67% decline in the basketball trading card market. This longer-term projection suggests significant challenges or changes in market dynamics, requiring stakeholders to adapt their strategies accordingly.
4. Year to Date Change:
The year-to-date change forecast indicates an 11% decrease in the market for basketball trading cards from the beginning of the year through February 2024. This metric provides insights into the overall performance and trajectory of the market since the start of the year.
5. 2-Year Year to Date Change:
Extending the analysis to a 2-year year-to-date change, the model projects a substantial 38% decrease in the basketball trading card market. This underscores the importance of considering extended timeframes when evaluating market trends and making strategic decisions.
6. 3-Year Change:
Taking a longer-term view, the model projects a significant 65% decrease in the basketball trading card market over the last three years. This suggests a persistent downward trend, emphasizing the need for stakeholders to adapt to evolving market conditions.
Conclusion:
In summary, the February 2024 forecast for basketball trading cards reveals a challenging market landscape characterized by significant declines across various timeframes. Stakeholders should closely monitor these trends and implement informed strategies to navigate the evolving market effectively, considering both short-term challenges and enduring downward trajectories.
Pancake Analytics Recap: Baseball Trading Cards – Forecast 2024 Forecast
Executive Summary:
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the forecasted trends for baseball trading cards in February 2024. Utilizing advanced analytics, the insights cover various timeframes to offer a detailed perspective on the evolving market dynamics.
1. Year Over Year Change:
The model forecasts a notable year-over-year change, indicating a 15% decrease in the market for baseball trading cards compared to February 2023. This signals a shift in demand and market conditions within the past year.
2. Month Over Month Change:
In contrast to the year-over-year trend, the month-over-month change predicts a positive 7% increase in the baseball trading card market for February 2024. This suggests a short-term surge in interest or demand compared to the preceding month.
3. Expected 2-Year Change:
Looking ahead to a 2-year timeframe, the model anticipates a 29% decline in the baseball trading card market. This longer-term projection suggests potential challenges or changes in market dynamics, urging stakeholders to adapt their strategies accordingly.
4. Year to Date Change:
The year-to-date change forecast presents a 6% increase in the market for baseball trading cards from the beginning of the year through February 2024. This metric provides insights into the overall performance and trajectory of the market since the start of the year.
5. 2-Year Year to Date Change:
Extending the analysis to a 2-year year-to-date change, the model projects a 15% decrease in the baseball trading card market. This underscores the importance of considering extended timeframes when evaluating market trends and making strategic decisions.
6. 3-Year Change:
Taking a longer-term view, the model projects a 25% decrease in the baseball trading card market over the last three years. This suggests a persistent downward trend, emphasizing the need for stakeholders to adapt to evolving market conditions.
Conclusion:
In summary, the February 2024 forecast for baseball trading cards reveals a nuanced market landscape with varying trends across different timeframes. While short-term indicators suggest a positive uptick, the overall outlook remains challenging with significant declines projected over longer periods. Stakeholders should closely monitor these trends and implement informed strategies to navigate the evolving market effectively, considering both short-term improvements and enduring challenges.
Pancake Analytics Recap: Star Wars Trading Cards – February 2024 Forecast
Executive Summary:
This report presents a detailed analysis of the forecasted trends for Star Wars trading cards in February 2024. Leveraging advanced analytics, the insights encompass various timeframes to provide a comprehensive understanding of the evolving market dynamics.
1. Year Over Year Change:
The model forecasts a notable year-over-year change, indicating a 17% decrease in the market for Star Wars trading cards compared to February 2023. This signals a significant shift in demand and market conditions within the past year.
2. Month Over Month Change:
In tandem with the year-over-year trend, the month-over-month change predicts a modest 1% decrease in the Star Wars trading card market for February 2024. This indicates a short-term dip in interest or demand compared to the previous month.
3. Year to Date Change:
The year-to-date change forecast suggests a 5% decrease in the market for Star Wars trading cards from the beginning of the year through February 2024. This metric provides insights into the overall performance and trajectory of the market since the start of the year.
4. 2-Year Year to Date Change:
Extending the analysis to a 2-year year-to-date change, the model surprisingly projects a 13% increase in the Star Wars trading card market. This contrasts with the shorter-term projections, underscoring the importance of considering diverse timeframes for a comprehensive understanding of market trends.
Conclusion:
In summary, the February 2024 forecast for Star Wars trading cards reveals a market with varying trends across different timeframes. While short-term and year-over-year indicators point towards a decrease, a more extended 2-year perspective suggests a potential increase in market interest. Stakeholders should closely monitor these trends and implement informed strategies to navigate the evolving market effectively, considering both short-term challenges and potential long-term opportunities.
