NSC 2026 Collectors’ Guide
Pancake Analytics / Cardboard Compass | Tom Ferrara (@pancake_analytics)
Market data as of May 2026 | Published for The National Sports Collectors Convention, Rosemont, IL
The Collecting Journey
This year I’m heading to The National (again I enjoyed seeing everyone in Rosemont and Cleveland the two shows I attended) and it’s become something more than just a card show for me. It’s a collecting journey. I go with my friends, and at the center of it is the simple joy of being there with my brother Bill, doing the thing we’ve loved our whole lives. Walking a floor that massive, finding a card you’ve been hunting, showing each other what you found and that’s what it’s actually about.
My brother Bill and I go back further than any spreadsheet. We’ve been collecting our whole lives, long before there were apps to track sales and I was analyzing momentum or MACD crossovers. The peak collecting story that lives rent-free in both our heads: I pulled a Kobe Bryant Finest Rookie out of a pack at a card show held in a mall, as a teenager. I traded it to Bill for an Allen Iverson. At the time it felt like a fair deal. In retrospect, it was one of the most expensive decisions of my adolescence. Kobe Finest Rookies don’t come cheap in 2026. That trade is the founding myth of this whole operation, the moment that made clear that the hobby rewards the informed and punishes the impulsive. Cardboard Compass (the free web app tool I developed) exists, in some small way, because of that Kobe.
Cardboard Compass tells us the hobby is as healthy as it’s been in years — +18.8% composite YoY, 80% breadth, with Pokémon and Basketball leading a broadly rising market. The 46th National is the biggest, most ambitious version of The National ever built: the International Pavilion, 150 new dealer tables, first-time signers in LaDainian Tomlinson and Tyler Herro (sorry Heat fans, treat him nice at the show), and a floor so large you need a day just to map it.
The data in this guide is context, not a mandate. My personal strategy has always been the same regardless of what any chart says: find cards I genuinely love to collect, at a good price. That’s it. The MACD signals, the momentum maps, the YoY tables — those help me understand the landscape and avoid getting burned. But I’m not a trader. I’m a collector. If I find a Kobe I love at a price that feels right, I’m buying it regardless of where Basketball sits on the momentum map. The data keeps me from overpaying. It doesn’t tell me what to love.
That said — the data can still keep money in your pocket if you use it right. And everyone’s strategy is different. This guide is how I think about it. Take what’s useful and leave the rest.
I’m going in with a plan, with my people, and with a lot of years of collecting behind me. The collectors who leave Rosemont ahead will be the ones who knew their numbers — and maybe the ones who remembered why they started collecting in the first place.
See you on the floor.
Cardboard Compass: Your Data Edge
Every piece of category analysis in this report was built on data from Cardboard Compass — my own market intelligence tool for the hobby. If I’m not using it actively at the show, I’m walking in without my edge.
MACD Dashboard — Full Signal Table (May 2026)
The MACD is the most important buy/sell indicator in Cardboard Compass. I check the Category Analysis view and read the chart visually — the label is a lagging indicator.
| Category | MACD Label | Actual Signal | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pokemon | High Up (label — lagging) | ⚠️ SELL — visual bearish crossover | High |
| Hockey | Low Down | 🔴 SELL | Confirmed |
| Basketball | Med Up | 🟢 BUY | Moderate |
| Soccer | Med Up | 🟢 BUY | Moderate |
| Star Wars | Med Up | 🟢 BUY | Moderate |
| Marvel | Med Up | 🟡 WATCH | Moderate (3-Mo negative) |
| Fortnite | Med Up | 🟡 SPECULATIVE | Moderate (YoY deeply negative) |
| Baseball | Low Up | 🟢 BUY | Weak-moderate |
| Football | Low Up | 🟢 BUY | Weak-moderate |
| Magic the Gathering | Low Up | 🟢 BUY | Weak-moderate |
The two SELL signals — Pokémon and Hockey — are my most critical data points at The National. I’m not letting the crowd narrative on Pokémon override what the chart is actually showing me.
Key tools I’m using pre- and post-show:
- Momentum Map — Which categories are accelerating vs. decelerating. My buying decisions follow the momentum, not the hype.
- HeatMap — Visual category performance across time windows. Which sports are in strong months vs. weak months relative to their own history.
- Rolling Volatility — Risk-adjusted returns by category. High volatility categories (like Pokemon) offer the most upside but also the most downside on a bad bet.
- Correlation Matrix — Which categories move together. If I’m overweight in correlated categories, I’m less diversified than I think.
At a show with 600+ dealers and 100,000 attendees, the information advantage belongs to the person who did their homework. The market data in this guide reflects Cardboard Compass’s eBay-sourced pricing as of May 2026. That data is my baseline — every card I evaluate at the show gets priced against it.
The Show Floor Strategy — My Day-by-Day Playbook
Wednesday, July 29 — Reconnaissance Day (2–8 PM)
Opening day is not buying day. It’s reconnaissance.
- 2:00 PM: Get in immediately upon opening. The floor will be at its least crowded for approximately 45 minutes.
- 2:00–4:00 PM: Complete floor lap. All 600,000 sq ft. No stopping to buy.
- During the lap: note which dealers have my target categories, photograph any cards I’m interested in (with price), and identify the vendors in the International Pavilion.
- 4:00–6:00 PM: Revisit my top 5–10 targets. Engage dealers, ask about negotiating room, build rapport.
- 6:00–8:00 PM: Walk the Live Streaming Pavilion. Understand the energy.
- Do not buy today. The floor is fully stocked and dealers are not discounting. The recon pays off Thursday.
Thursday, July 30 — Execution Day (10 AM–6 PM)
- 10:00 AM: First in. Go directly to the pre-identified dealers from Wednesday recon.
- Morning: Execute on best deals while inventory is fullest.
- Midday: TRISTAR Pavilion for autograph sessions. Line strategy matters — I’m checking TRISTAR’s schedule in advance.
- Afternoon: Hit the International Pavilion. Soccer and TCG deals.
- Evening: National Trade Night. Shift from buying to trading mode. Collector-to-collector energy is different from dealer buying — bring cards to trade.
Friday, July 31 — Deep Dive + Trade Night (10 AM–6 PM, Trade Night evening)
- Morning: Explore dealers I didn’t get to Thursday.
- Identify any PSA submissions — get in the grading queue.
- Trade Night (evening): The best Trade Night of the three. The collector community is in full swing. Bring duplicates, bring anything I’d trade.
- Friday Trade Night is when the serious deals happen. Not skipping it.
Saturday, August 1 — Volume Day (10 AM–6 PM)
- Dealers have been on their feet for three days. Inventory has moved. They know what’s not selling.
- This is the best day to negotiate on bulk or mid-range cards. Dealers are in deal-making mode.
- My strategy: Go in with a list of 10–15 cards I want. Make offers. Most dealers will negotiate on Saturday that they wouldn’t on Wednesday.
- Final TRISTAR sessions — last chance for autograph signings.
- Evening Trade Night: lower energy than Friday but still worthwhile.
Sunday, August 2 — Final Sweep (10 AM–4 PM)
- Closeout day. Dealers do not want to pack and ship product. The motivated seller dynamic is strongest today.
- I’m at the door at 10:00 AM. The best closeout deals go in the first hour.
- Target: raw lots, bulk commons, anything a dealer is pricing to move rather than ship.
- Out by 2:00 PM — the last two hours are congested with checkout traffic and the deals are gone.
Category Intelligence — What I’m Targeting at The National
A note on my approach: My personal collecting strategy has always been simple — find cards I genuinely love, at a good price. The signals below are how I use data to avoid overpaying, not a formula for what I should or shouldn’t collect. Everyone’s collecting journey is different. Use this as a framework, not a rulebook.
Baseball — BUY / HOLD
+23.92% YoY | +5.43% 3-Mo | MACD: Low Up
Baseball is healthy across the board, and the signing lineup is the deepest of any sport at the show. Ripken, Bench, Rivera, Ortiz, Clemens, and Schmidt all signing means demand for their authenticated autos will be elevated post-show. My strategy: Look for undervalued rookie cards of Hall-of-Famers in the mid-range tier ($50–$300). If I submit raw cards to PSA on-site and get back a PSA 9 or 10, I can significantly increase card value in a single weekend. I’m avoiding paying a premium on cards that dealers have inflated specifically for the show.
Basketball — STRONG BUY
+36.2% YoY | +21.33% 3-Mo | MACD: Med Up
The second-strongest momentum category has the right signers at the right time. Allen Iverson always draws. Hakeem’s market has been ascending. The two first-timers — Tyler Herro and Dwight Howard — are the plays here. Herro rookie cards in particular are worth my attention before his signing tickets go on sale. First-time signer announcements reliably spike prices in the 2–4 week window after announcement and immediately post-show. If I’m buying Herro rookies, I buy before the crowds figure it out.
Football — SELECTIVE BUY
+12.52% YoY | +2.77% 3-Mo | MACD: Low Up
Football has the weakest 3-month momentum of the positive YoY categories. Montana, Rice, and Sanders are blue-chips — their prices reflect their stature. The interesting plays are LaDainian Tomlinson and Isaac Bruce, both first-time signers. LDT is a Hall-of-Famer with a massive national fan base who has never signed at The National. That’s an underpriced anomaly. I’m looking for LDT and Bruce raw cards to target for PSA grading + post-show auto pairing.
Hockey — PATIENT BUYER
+13.27% YoY | -3.04% 3-Mo | MACD: Low Down — SELL
Negative 3-month momentum and a confirmed SELL signal on the MACD means I’m in a buyer’s window here, not a seller’s. If I have targeted pieces I love, I can buy them at softening prices — but I’m not betting on a quick flip. No major hockey signers at the show means no near-term catalyst for a pop. Long-hold category at The National 2026.
Pokemon — ⚠️ SELL / DO NOT BUY AT PEAK
+69.6% YoY | +29.34% 3-Mo | MACD: Bearish crossover in progress
This is the most important signal in this entire report. Pokémon has the best raw price numbers in the hobby — and the MACD just flashed SELL.
The app’s “High Up” label reflects May’s month-end state. But when I look at the MACD chart in Category Analysis, the MACD line has already crossed below the Signal line. That visual crossover is the real signal, and it says the momentum trade on Pokemon is over for now.
What this means at The National: The floor will be crowded with buyers chasing the +69.6% YoY story. I’m not going to be one of them. If I’m holding Pokémon positions, this is a show to consider selling into elevated collector demand — not adding. If I want back in, I’ll wait for the MACD to reset.
The one exception: pure arbitrage. If a vendor in the new International Pavilion has underpriced product relative to current eBay comps, that’s a mispricing play, not a momentum trade. The MACD doesn’t disqualify arbitrage. I know my comps cold and I’ll only buy where I see a clear gap.
Soccer — BUY
+27.27% YoY | +13.82% 3-Mo | MACD: Med Up
The International Pavilion is the most important structural addition to NSC 2026, and it’s a direct bet on soccer’s trajectory. Third-strongest YoY growth in the hobby, accelerating 3-month momentum, and a dedicated pavilion for the first time. I’m expecting international vendors with underpriced product — especially for players in European leagues who are big in their home markets but less known to American dealers. The pricing inefficiency here should be significant. High-conviction buying category for me at this show.
Magic the Gathering — SLEEPER BUY
+12.68% YoY | +13.79% 3-Mo | MACD: Low Up
MTG’s 3-month momentum outpacing the YoY is an acceleration signal. The category is featured in the International Pavilion. Most sports card collectors don’t follow MTG closely — which means the dealers who specialize in it may be offering better value than the sophisticated sports card buyers will find. Singles market, Reserved List cards, and sealed product from older sets are the plays if I have any MTG knowledge to deploy.
Marvel — CAUTION
+16.86% YoY | -8.44% 3-Mo | MACD: Med Up
Don’t be fooled by the strong YoY. The 3-month number is the leading indicator, and -8.44% is a significant negative momentum signal. The movie calendar matters for Marvel cards, and the near-term slate may not have the catalyst needed to reverse this. I’m passing on Marvel at the show unless I see something dramatically mispriced. This is not the show to be paying full retail on Marvel product.
Fortnite — SPECULATIVE ONLY
-24.24% YoY | +8.81% 3-Mo | MACD: Med Up
The YoY is the worst in my tracked universe by a wide margin. The 3-month has turned positive, which may signal a bottom, but one positive quarter doesn’t confirm a trend. If I see Fortnite product at distressed prices from a motivated seller, there’s a speculative case. Otherwise, not a priority category for me at The National.
Who’s Signing — The Autograph Pavilion (TRISTAR)
Important: All-Access VIP is sold out. Autograph tickets are purchased separately through TRISTAR Productions. I’m planning my autograph sessions in advance — popular signers sell out fast.
Baseball
| Signer | Notes |
|---|---|
| Cal Ripken Jr. | One of the most consistent auto sellers in the hobby |
| Mariano Rivera | HOF closer, perennially strong demand |
| Johnny Bench | HOF, vintage market leader |
| Steve Carlton | HOF lefty, undervalued relative to peers |
| David Ortiz | Strong modern demand |
| Eddie Murray | HOF, 500 HR club |
| Robin Yount | HOF, two-position HOFer |
| Dave Winfield | HOF, steady blue-chip |
| Manny Ramirez | Strong secondary market despite controversies |
| Roger Clemens | One of the most valuable unsigned HOF-caliber autos |
| Mike Schmidt | HOF third baseman, consistent demand |
| Kerry Wood | Fan favorite, Chicago crowd |
Football
| Signer | Notes |
|---|---|
| Joe Montana | One of the most collected football autos ever |
| Jerry Rice | All-time WR, premium market |
| Barry Sanders | HOF, perennial top seller |
| Terry Bradshaw | HOF, four-time SB champ |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | ⭐ FIRST-TIME SIGNER — major wildcard |
| Marshall Faulk | HOF, strong St. Louis market |
| Earl Campbell | HOF, Texas legend |
| Kurt Warner | HOF, strong faith/community collector base |
| Isaac Bruce | ⭐ FIRST-TIME SIGNER — underpriced entering the show |
Basketball
| Signer | Notes |
|---|---|
| Allen Iverson | One of the most popular auto sellers in the hobby |
| Hakeem Olajuwon | HOF, ascending market |
| Dennis Rodman | Pop culture crossover, strong demand |
| Kevin McHale | HOF Celtic, strong vintage market |
| Tyler Herro | ⭐ FIRST-TIME SIGNER — active player, rookie card prices worth watching |
| Antoine Walker | Strong nostalgia market |
| Dwight Howard | ⭐ FIRST-TIME SIGNER — multiple-time All-Star |
Other Sports / Entertainment
| Signer | Notes |
|---|---|
| Mike Tyson | Boxing icon, crossover appeal |
| Ric Flair | ⭐ FIRST-TIME SIGNER — massive entertainment collector base |
| Evander Holyfield | ⭐ FIRST-TIME SIGNER — Tyson-adjacent demand |
First-Time Signers I’m Watching
First-time signers are the highest-volatility opportunity at any National. Their pre-signing card prices haven’t been bid up yet, and demand spikes immediately after signings are announced. Here’s my priority list:
- LaDainian Tomlinson (Football) — HOF RB with a massive fan base who has never signed at The National. Potentially the most impactful first-timer at the show.
- Isaac Bruce (Football) — HOF-caliber WR, underappreciated in the market.
- Tyler Herro (Basketball) — Active player, first signing. I’m watching rookie card prices closely.
- Dwight Howard (Basketball) — Multiple All-Star, first signing.
- Evander Holyfield (Boxing) — Legendary name, first-timer, rides the Tyson wave.
The National 2026 — Show Guide
Event Logistics
| Detail | Info |
|---|---|
| Event | 46th National Sports Collectors Convention |
| Dates | July 29–August 2, 2026 (Wednesday–Sunday) |
| Venue | Donald E. Stephens Convention Center |
| Address | 5555 N River Rd, Rosemont, IL 60018 |
Hours
| Day | Hours |
|---|---|
| Wednesday, July 29 | 2:00 PM – 8:00 PM |
| Thursday, July 30 | 10:00 AM – 6:00 PM |
| Friday, July 31 | 10:00 AM – 6:00 PM |
| Saturday, August 1 | 10:00 AM – 6:00 PM |
| Sunday, August 2 | 10:00 AM – 4:00 PM |
Tickets
| Ticket Type | Price |
|---|---|
| General Admission (advance) | $25/day |
| General Admission (door) | $30/day |
| 5-Day Early Entry Pass | $149.99 |
| Basic VIP | $199.99 |
| All-Access VIP | $329.99 — SOLD OUT |
Note: All-Access VIP is gone. Plan around the Early Entry Pass or Basic VIP for floor priority.
Scale
The biggest show in hobby history:
- 600,000+ sq ft of convention space
- 600+ dealer tables
- 100,000+ expected attendees
What’s New in 2026
- International Pavilion — Dedicated space for soccer cards and TCGs (Pokemon, MTG). A structural acknowledgment of where the hobby is growing. Expecting new vendors, international product, and competitive pricing.
- 150 additional dealer tables over prior years — more floor, more opportunity, more time needed.
- Live Streaming Pavilion — 55,000 sq ft dedicated to content creators and live rips. Worth a lap even if I’m not buying there.
- National Trade Nights — Thursday, Friday, and Saturday evenings. The best time for collector-to-collector trading.
PSA On-Site Grading
PSA will be grading on-site. Submissions start at $149. If I’m bringing raw cards I’ve been sitting on, this is the most efficient submission window of the year. I’m getting my cards organized and submission-ready before I arrive.
My Tips Going In
- Bring cash, small bills. Many dealers discount for cash. $20s and $50s are ideal — I don’t want to hand a dealer a $100 for a $30 card.
- Wear the most comfortable shoes I own. 600,000 sq ft is not a metaphor. I will walk miles.
- Full floor lap before buying anything. Wednesday VIP entry is reconnaissance, not shopping. Map the floor, find the dealers with my target categories, note prices. Buy on Thursday.
- VIP early entry strategy: The first 30 minutes on any given day are when the best cards move. If I have early entry, I’m using it. Go straight to pre-identified dealers.
- Don’t leave Sunday deals on the table. Dealers do not want to ship product home. Sunday afternoon is deal-making time — especially for bulk lots and raw cards.
- Eat before going in. Convention food is expensive and the lines are long.
Market Snapshot — What the Data Says
Headline Numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Composite YoY | +18.8% |
| Composite 3-Month | +11.3% |
| Breadth (3-Mo > 0) | 80% (8 of 10 categories) |
The market isn’t just up — it’s broadly up. 80% breadth means this isn’t a bubble carried by one category. It’s a rising tide.
Full Category Breakdown
| Category | YoY % | 3-Mo % | MACD Signal | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pokemon | +69.60% | +29.34% | ⚠️ Bearish crossover (in progress) | SELL |
| Basketball | +36.20% | +21.33% | 🟢 Med Up | BUY |
| Soccer | +27.27% | +13.82% | 🟢 Med Up | BUY |
| Baseball | +23.92% | +5.43% | 🟢 Low Up | BUY |
| Star Wars | +22.59% | +7.48% | 🟢 Med Up | BUY |
| Magic the Gathering | +12.68% | +13.79% | 🟢 Low Up | BUY |
| Marvel | +16.86% | -8.44% | 🟢 Med Up | WATCH |
| Football | +12.52% | +2.77% | 🟢 Low Up | BUY |
| Hockey | +13.27% | -3.04% | 🔴 Low Down | SELL |
| Fortnite | -24.24% | +8.81% | 🟢 Med Up | SPECULATIVE |
MACD Buy/Sell Signals — The Most Important Indicator
I built Cardboard Compass around the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) signal for each category — it’s the primary buy/sell indicator in the app. When the MACD line crosses above the Signal line, it’s a bullish crossover (BUY). When it crosses below, it’s a bearish crossover (SELL).
Critical read on Pokemon: The app’s text label currently reads “High Up” (based on May month-end data), but when I look at the MACD chart in Category Analysis, the line has already crossed below the Signal line. This is a real-time bearish crossover not yet reflected in the label. Pokemon is a SELL signal right now — despite having the best raw YoY/3-Mo numbers in the hobby. This is exactly why I look at the chart, not just the label.
Two categories are on SELL signals heading into The National: Pokemon (visual crossover) and Hockey (confirmed Low Down). Every other category is on a BUY signal of varying conviction.
Category Notes
Pokémon (+69.6% YoY, +29.34% 3-Mo | ⚠️ MACD: Bearish crossover in progress): The raw numbers are still the best in the hobby — but the MACD is flashing a sell signal. The label says “High Up” (May data), but the MACD line has visually crossed below the Signal line in June. That’s a bearish crossover, and it’s the most important signal in this report. The crowd at The National will be chasing the +69.6% story. The chart says that trade is crowded and reversing. This is a SELL or hold category at the show, not a new entry.
Basketball (+36.2% YoY, +21.33% 3-Mo): The momentum here is real and durable. Strong signers at the show reinforce demand. This is the sport category with the most upside at the show.
Soccer (+27.27% YoY, +13.82% 3-Mo): One of the fastest-growing YoY categories, and the addition of the International Pavilion at NSC 2026 is a direct acknowledgment of soccer’s rise in the hobby. Expecting undervalued international product from new vendors.
Baseball (+23.92% YoY, +5.43% 3-Mo): The heartbeat of the hobby. YoY strength is supported by one of the deepest autograph lineups at the show. Steady, not flashy — exactly what I want for core holdings.
Magic the Gathering (+12.68% YoY, +13.79% 3-Mo): The 3-month number outpacing the YoY is meaningful — MTG is accelerating. The International Pavilion features TCGs. This is the sleeper category of the show.
Marvel (+16.86% YoY, -8.44% 3-Mo): The YoY looks fine; the 3-month is a red flag. Near-term momentum is clearly negative. Not the show to be acquiring Marvel at full price.
Hockey (+13.27% YoY, -3.04% 3-Mo): Slightly negative 3-month momentum signals a pause. Confirmed SELL on the MACD. For hockey collectors it’s a buyer’s window — but don’t expect a quick flip.
Fortnite (-24.24% YoY, +8.81% 3-Mo): The YoY number is brutal. But the 3-month has turned positive for the first time in a while. Possible bottom forming. Speculative only — not a conviction play.
Data source: Cardboard Compass (cardboardcompass.streamlit.app) | eBay-sourced market data, May 2026
NSC 2026 information sourced from The National Sports Collectors Convention official announcements
Report prepared by Tom Ferrara | Pancake Analytics | @pancake_analytics
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